• The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the White Sox
• White Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• White Sox / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | tru | HBOM

The Chicago White Sox (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on October 3, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the White Sox are 86-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 77-84 ATS.

White Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• White Sox starting pitcher: Hagen Smith 3-3, 1.16 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 12-9, 2.58 ERA

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

White Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brenton Doyle has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+19.20 Units / 480% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+14.45 Units / 71% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Randal Grichuk has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• Luisangel Acuña has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+14.20 Units / 158% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Parker Messick has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 54% ROI)

White Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 45 away games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.80 Units / 72% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the White Sox are 92-69 against the Run Line (+8.75 Units / 3.82% ROI).

• 86-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.35 Units / 6.77% ROI
• 94-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +19.05 Units / 10.57% ROI
• 68-94 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.65 Units / -19.75% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 77-84 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -5.63% ROI).

• 85-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -0.71% ROI
• 77-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -7.49% ROI
• 83-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.52% ROI

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The White Sox are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The White Sox are 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The White Sox were just 40-103 (.280) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The White Sox were just 33-23 (.589) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Guardians are 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 20-21 (.488) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

White Sox hitters have 75 extra-base hits out of 155 total hits (48%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The White Sox are batting just .217 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

White Sox hitters have grounded into 73 double plays in 1,175 opportunities (6%) this season — best in MLB.

White Sox hitters have 151 extra-base hits out of 378 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .230 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .380 this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .675 (1,948 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,909 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

The White Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (462.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd best in MLB.

White Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH (4,095 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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