Inter Miami vs. St. Louis Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

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Inter Miami forward Lionel Messi runs during the first half of an MLS soccer match against Real Salt Lake, Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
(Lynne Sladky/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 30, 2024, 3:35 PM
  • Inter Miami is a -1.5-goal favorite against St. Louis.
  • Miami suffered their first home defeat midweek with Lionel Messi in the lineup.
  • Bettors should look to this prop market for Saturday’s fixture.

Seeking their third win in their last four matches, Inter Miami welcomes St. Louis to Chase Field on Saturday. 

Miami, despite fielding a full-strength Starting XI in the midweek, lost 3-1 at home to Atlanta United. That put an end to a two-match winning streak and a 10-match unbeaten run. 

In good news for Miami, they’ll get a chance to quickly right the ship against a St. Louis side that has lost three straight league fixtures. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture. 

MLS Odds – Inter Miami vs. St. Louis

  • Inter Miami Moneyline: -250
  • St. Louis Moneyline: +525
  • Draw Moneyline: +400
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

MLS Predictions – Inter Miami vs. St. Louis

Inter Miami 2H Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+135)

Miami has consistently shown that, at home, they prefer to turn the jets on after halftime. 

It showed once again in the midweek against Atlanta, who limited Miami to 0.47 expected goals and zero shots on target in the first half. 

Comparatively, Miami generated 0.33 expected goals and 0.7 post-shot expected goals in the second 45 minutes, per 

With Miami playing on short rest and St. Louis operating with a full week between games, bettors should expect a similar script in the first half. 

Plus, St. Louis has shown they can limit teams early but tend to fall apart late away from home. 

In a recent trip to FC Cincinnati, St. Louis surrendered 2.2 non-penalty expected goals, 1.8 of which came in the second half. 

All told, St. Louis has surrendered 9.6 npxGA on the road this season. Of that total, 60.5% came after halftime. 

Sample all six of their road games to date and bettors will find St. Louis allowed at least two second-half goals in four matches with only one second-half clean sheet. 

Miami is coming off a match where they only scored one second-half goal, but there’s a decent drop-off between the Atlanta defense and St. Louis’ defense. 

Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Atlanta has surrendered 1.15 npxGA per 90 minutes with St. Louis allowing 1.36, per 

Sample the six Miami home matches with Messi in the lineup, and bettors will find they’ve scored at least one second-half goal in all six with two or more tallies only twice. 

Oddly, those two successes came against sides with superior defensive records to St. Louis. However, given the rest gap, I’ll take Miami to clear this total for the third time. 

Inter Miami Form 

May 29 vs. Atlanta United: 1-3, L

May 25 at Vancouver: 2-1, W

May 18 vs. D.C. United: 1-0, W

May 15 at Orlando: 0-0, D

May 11 at Montreal: 3-2, W

St. Louis Form

May 25 vs. Seattle: 1-2, L

May 18 at FC Cincinnati: 1-3, L

May 15 vs. LAFC: 0-2, L

May 11 vs. Chicago: 3-1, W

May 4 at Houston: 0-0, D

Upcoming MLS Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
NYCFCSan Jose EarthquakesMay. 317:30 PMYankee Stadium
D.C. UnitedToronto FCJun. 17:30 PMAudi Field
Inter MiamiSt. Louis SCJun. 17:30 PMChase Field
NY Red BullsOrlando SCJun. 17:30 PMRed Bull Arena
Philadelphia UnionMontrealJun. 17:30 PMSubaru Park
Chicago FireLA GalaxyJun. 18:30 PMSoldier Field
Minnesota UnitedSporting KCJun. 18:30 PMAllianz Field
Nashville SCNew England RevolutionJun. 18:30 PMGEODIS Park
Real Salt LakeAustin FCJun. 19:30 PMAmerica First Field
LAFCFC DallasJun. 110:30 PMBMO Stadium
Portland TimbersHouston DynamoJun. 110:30 PMProvidence Park
Vancouver WhitecapsColorado RapidsJun. 110:30 PMBC Place
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FCJun. 22:45 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Inter Miami10-4-33415
FC Cincinnati10-3-3337
NY Red Bulls7-5-3266
Columbus Crew6-6-2248
Toronto FC7-2-7230
Charlotte FC6-4-622-1
Philadelphia Union4-7-4194
Nashville SC4-7-419-1
D.C. United4-6-618-6
Orlando City4-5-617-7
Atlanta United4-4-7162
CF Montreal4-4-716-12
Chicago Fire2-6-812-13
NE Revolution2-1-107-17

MLS Western Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Real Salt Lake8-6-23013
LA Galaxy7-7-2285
Minnesota United7-4-3255
Austin FC6-5-5230
Vancouver Whitecaps6-4-5224
Colorado Rapids6-4-622-1
Houston Dynamo6-3-6210
Portland Timbers5-4-7190
Seattle Sounders4-6-6180
St. Louis SC3-7-416-2
FC Dallas3-4-713-6
San Jose Earthquakes3-2-1011-11
Sporting KC2-5-811-5

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.