The Memphis Grizzlies have a win total of 39.5 ahead of the 2025-26 season, according to the NBA betting lines at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
The Grizzlies haven’t had a lower preseason win total since 2020-21.
Grizzlies Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 39.5 wins: -125
- Under 39.5 wins: +105
Grizzlies Win Total Prediction
- Over 40.5 wins (Pick made Oct. 2)
The Grizzlies have made it a habit of exceeding expectations. They have cleared their win total in four of their past five seasons, with the one exception being when they dealt with the most injuries in the league during the 2023-24 campaign.
Despite trading away Desmond Bane in the offseason, I don’t see Memphis dropping off too much after winning 48 games last year.
The Grizzlies secured four first-round picks by trading Bane to the Orlando Magic, positioning themselves for a better long-term outlook. They used two of those picks to move up and select Cedric Coward (one of the biggest risers in the class) with the No. 11 overall pick.
Memphis has developed a strong draft reputation after selecting Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells in last year’s draft. Wells could play a significant role in replacing Bane in his second NBA season after finishing third in the Rookie of the Year race.
Still, this team’s success will depend on the duo of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. I listed Jackson first because he might have taken control as the leader of the team after a second All-Star selection last season, averaging 22.2 points and 1.5 blocks per game.
Morant, who played 50 games last year, hasn’t been an All-Star since 2022-23. If that version of Morant returns this year, it could boost the Grizzlies’ chances of competing in the West.
Even in a competitive conference, I’d expect the Grizzlies to finish with a .500 record next year.
Grizzlies Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 47.5 | 48 | Over |
| 2023-24 | 45.5 | 27 | Under |
| 2022-23 | 49.5 | 51 | Over |
| 2021-22 | 41.5 | 56 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 31.5 | 38 | Over |
| 2019-20 | 27.5 | 34 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 34.5 | 33 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 37.5 | 22 | Under |
| 2016-17 | 42.5 | 43 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 50.5 | 42 | Under |
| 2014-15 | 48.5 | 55 | Over |
| 2013-14 | 50.5 | 50 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 48.5 | 56 | Over |
| 2011-12 | 37.5 | 41 | Over |
| 2010-11 | 38.5 | 46 | Over |
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