The flurry of free agency is a popular, if early, time for NBA futures bettors to stake an early position.
This is something I’ve already written about this month, thanks to a rush of early money targeting the Golden State Warriors’ odds in the 2026-27 Western Conference market – potentially in anticipation of a LeBron James announcement.
In the Eastern Conference, the most popular bets aren’t too surprising. Philadelphia, Cleveland, Indiana, Toronto, and Miami are the five most popular bets to win the East, with the 76ers accounting for roughly 22% of all tickets as of July 13.
Given the Jaylen Brown trade news, the popularity of the 76ers odds market makes sense. This is a trend likely to continue through the summer and into October, when the first games tip off.
But the popularity of a futures ticket doesn’t always line up with which teams present the greatest financial liability to the sportsbook. A popular bet with short odds will often not be as financially dangerous to the book’s bottom line as a semi-popular bet with astronomical odds.
Because of this dynamic, it’s not the 76ers, Cavaliers, or Heat that present the biggest liability. It’s not even the Raptors, who have quietly amassed a whopping 32% of the handle share in the Eastern Conference market.
Instead, the No. 1 liability in the early Eastern Conference market is the rebuilt Washington Wizards.
Washington has been the target of some major money in the opening weeks of BetMGM’s 2027 NBA futures market. As of July 13, roughly one out of every five dollars bet in the Eastern Conference futures market has targeted the Wizards.
When you combine all that action with the price – a whopping 60-to-1, as of this writing – the sportsbook’s liability on the Wizards’ odds is a big one, right out of the gate.
The anticipated lineup for Washington next season is Trae Young, Kyshawn George, recent No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, and Anthony Davis, with pieces like Bilal Coulibaly, Deandre Ayton and Bub Carrington coming off the bench. That assumes the team stays healthy, of course.
The Wizards have three playoff series wins in the last 20 seasons, so the book probably isn’t sweating this liability too much.
Still, it does make me wonder – what do these Wizards bettors see in the 2027 team that I don’t?
Washington Wizards @ +8000It’s never been easier and more fun to bet on NBA odds at the online sportsbook.
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