As the NBA free agency news slows from a fountain to a trickle, basketball fans are still waiting to see where LeBron James will be playing in 2026.
That news might not come for days, weeks, or even months. If I were the oldest player in the NBA, I’d sure think about taking some extra time off and joining a team later than usual. There’s virtually no concern that LeBron will show up out of shape or not be able to integrate into a team.
Thus, bettors with an eye for the NBA futures odds market are stuck waiting. Or, if they’re inclined toward reading tea leaves, they’re looking to make speculative bets on a team before LeBron actually makes a decision.
One team appears to be a popular target in that regard.
As of July 13, the most popular bet to win the Western Conference is… the Golden State Warriors. That’s at least the case at BetMGM, where a shocking 19.4% of all tickets and 32.8% of all handle are on Golden State in the Western Conference market.
Both of those figures lead all other Western Conference teams by significant margins.
The Warriors have missed the playoffs in two of the last three years. They only won one playoff series in 2025, the year they made the playoffs. So a massive surge of betting activity on the Warriors odds ahead of the 2026-27 season is a pretty shocking development. This is not exactly the middle of the Stephen Curry dynasty.
The only way to logically read this data, in my opinion, is that a big percentage of bettors really do think LeBron James will ultimately sign with the Warriors for this upcoming season. This is a theory that’s been at least partially propped up by podcast figures like Bill Simmons, who has compared the proposition of a late-career alliance between James and Curry to the action movie The Expendables.
For what it’s worth, a BetMGM market pricing the odds for LeBron James’ next team closed at Warriors -250.
Whether or not LeBron ultimately goes to the Bay Area for his 24th NBA season is unknowable to most bettors. It makes sense if he wants to remain in California, keeping his life rooted in the Los Angeles area; it makes a lot less sense if he’s interested in seriously pursuing a fifth championship. Even with the old man from Akron, Golden State’s roster is a long way away from winning a loaded Western Conference.
If he does prioritize a championship decision, keep an eye on the Cavaliers or 76ers – the latter of which is already the No. 1 most popular bet to win the East, thanks to the Jaylen Brown trade.
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