The Celtics capped the 2024 season by winning their 18th championship. Jaylen Brown was named Finals MVP. It’s the second Boston title of this century and the first since Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett roamed the court.
Naturally, the BetMGM online sportsbook already has a market up for next season’s futures market. Bettors can establish an early position off fresh numbers ahead of 2024-25.
Boston was the NBA odds favorite throughout the entire 2023-24 season. Unsurprisingly, the Celtics retain their favorite status going into next season.
Odds to Win NBA Championship, 2024-25
| Team | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +310 | +300 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +750 | +1000 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +800 | +1600 |
| Denver Nuggets | +850 | +750 |
| New York Knicks | +900 | +1600 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +1100 | +900 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +1100 | +1000 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +1300 | +1000 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +3000 | +3500 |
| Phoenix Suns | +4000 | +2500 |
| Golden State Warriors | +4000 | +3000 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | +4000 | +4000 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +4000 | +5000 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +5000 | +2500 |
| Miami Heat | +5000 | +3500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +5000 | +4000 |
| Indiana Pacers | +6600 | +5000 |
| Sacramento Kings | +6600 | +5000 |
| Orlando Magic | +6600 | +6600 |
| Houston Rockets | +12500 | +12500 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +15000 | +12500 |
| Atlanta Hawks | +50000 | +10000 |
| Utah Jazz | +50000 | +50000 |
| Chicago Bulls | +100000 | +25000 |
| Brooklyn Nets | +100000 | +50000 |
| Charlotte Hornets | +100000 | +50000 |
| Toronto Raptors | +100000 | +50000 |
| Detroit Pistons | +100000 | +100000 |
| Washington Wizards | +100000 | +100000 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +100000 | +100000 |
NBA Finals Prediction: Who Will Win the Finals This Year?
Based on the current futures market, the Boston Celtics (+310) have an implied 24.4% chance to win the 2025 NBA championship.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (+750, 11.8%) is the second-most likely team to win the NBA championship, followed by the Philadelphia 76ers (+800, 11.1%).
NBA Title Odds: Sixers, Thunder Attract Major Dollars
In the weeks since the Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, six teams have proven popular among BetMGM online sportsbook bettors. They are:
- Boston Celtics (+310)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+750)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+800)
- Denver Nuggets (+850)
- New York Knicks (+900)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+3000)
Each of those six teams has at least 6% of the early ticket share. Line movement, NBA free agency, and ticket/handle split can all provide some additional detail on the early fundamentals of the 2025 NBA futures market.
At the top, Boston remains a sensible favorite. The Celtics were a start-to-finish favorite throughout last season, remaining at or near the very top of the NBA odds table at BetMGM since the summer of 2023. With the championship earned, and most of the regular contributors resigned or extended, Boston’s status remains mostly unchanged.
That said, the Celtics are far from a big-money target. As of July 1, the Celtics were responsible for nearly 18% of all tickets, but the handle represented only 9.2% of all dollars spent in the championship market.
The disparity between the tickets and dollars may suggest that the Celtics are more popular with retail bettors and small-dollar handicappers than traditional sharps. The NBA hasn’t had a back-to-back champion since the Kevin Durant Warriors, and much has been written (including by me) of the Celtics’ easy path through the 2024 playoffs. Perhaps bettors are counting on 2025 being tougher.
The Celtics aren’t the only team with a square-leaning split between tickets and handle. The Knicks were one of the most discussed teams of the free agency period when they traded for Mikal Bridges and added to their Villanova identity core, so it’s not surprising that there was a flurry of betting activity focused on the Knicks’ futures odds immediately afterward.
About 8.8% of all championship bets are on the Knicks. In the Eastern Conference futures market, that number explodes up to a conference-high 28.4%.
However, the handle is another matter. The Knicks have less than 3.5% of the futures handle in the championship market, potentially suggesting that they’re more of a populist fan target than a true contender.
The team in the East that has attracted big money is the Sixers, which landed a true Big Three with the arrival of Paul George. As of July 1, the Sixers accounted for nearly one-sixth of all championship handle, which is second-most in the NBA and more than any other team in the East.
At BetMGM, the only team that can top the Sixers in handle is Oklahoma City, which pulled in a whopping 27.2% of the early dollars. It’s more than double every other team’s market handle except the 76ers.
For what it’s worth, I agree with the market’s bullishness on the Thunder. Oklahoma City has likely assembled the best top-to-bottom roster in the league, yet BetMGM’s NBA odds had priced OKC behind Denver and in the same neighborhood as both Minnesota and Dallas.
The Thunder price was finally shortened after they became the second-biggest liability at BetMGM, behind only the Lakers.
In my opinion, the Thunder (+750) should be a clear favorite in the West. The fact that they remain reasonably tight with the Nuggets (+850), Mavericks (+1100), and Timberwolves (+1100) tells me there’s still room to bet on OKC now, while the number remains fat.
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