3 NFL Defenses Likely for Statistical Regression 2026

Predicting which teams will pace the NFL defensive rankings each year is wildly difficult.

The unit sees way more variance each year compared to offensive rankings. The 2025 season proved an exception as seven of the 10-best DVOA defenses from 2024 kept a top-10 spot.

But we also saw massive slides from teams like Baltimore (6th to 17th), Green Bay (7th to 19th) and San Francisco (13th to 27th).

Here are three defenses I’m expecting to regress in 2026 based on NFL odds.

3 Best NFL Defensive Regression Predictions 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars

Turnovers aided the Jaguars immensely as Liam Coen’s team won the AFC South. Incredibly, the defense went from forcing nine takeaways in 2024 to 31 in 2025.

Take away those turnovers and the defense looks a lot different. Jacksonville drops from fifth to 11th in defensive EPA per play and fourth to eighth in dropback EPA per play.

Jacksonville achieved those metrics as a high-variance unit facing largely easy opposition.

Only six defenses measured as a higher-variance unit than Jacksonville, which faced the 21st-hardest set of offenses.

From Weeks 2-10, Jacksonville ranked 27th in EPA per play, including 27th through the air, on plays excluding turnovers.

It’s a concerning sign as the team projects to face the league’s 15th-hardest set of offenses.

Chicago Bears

If the floor falls out from under Chicago’s defense, an already bad defense could become worse.

Chicago ranked 23rd in points per game allowed while ranking 25th in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. But like Jacksonville, turnovers aided Chicago in disguising true quality.

Dennis Allen’s unit forced a league-high 33 takeaways last year. Including turnovers, the Bears ranked 21st in defensive EPA per play against 26th in defensive success rate.

Excluding turnovers, the unit falls to 30th in defensive EPA per play. The pass defense, across the entire season, rated out worse than teams like the Jets, Niners, Titans and Commanders!

It’s more likely than not the takeaways decrease year over year. Plus, the Bears project to face a difficult set of offenses.

By 2025 DVOA rankings, the Bears project to face the league’s 15th-hardest set of offenses. Over a two-year blended average, it projects as the seventh-hardest set of offenses.

Miami Dolphins

This is a defense that posted inconsistent defensive metrics last year. We already know they’re a bad defense (24th in DVOA), but it came against the 25th-hardest schedule.

If all goes wrong this year, the Dolphins could wind up as the NFL’s worst defense by a country mile. Miami faces the second-hardest schedule in the NFL, particularly a brutal set of offenses.

Outside the division, Miami plays the AFC West, NFC North and Bengals/Colts/49ers. Average out all their opponents’ 2025 DVOA ratings and it projects as the eighth-hardest set of offenses.

The figure likely takes a leap if you exclude the Jets from the sample. By a two-year blended average, the Dolphins project to face the league’s sixth-hardest schedule.

For a team that allowed 27+ points in 10 of 17 last year, a massive step back appears likely.