I’ve been writing a lot recently about the over/unders for individual NFL players in the 2023 football season.
Rather than try to bet single-game prop bets or NFL spreads, bettors can log into the sportsbook this summer and bet season-long stats, avoiding the game-to-game variance that often governs the prop markets.
Now, I’m turning to the NFC South, where a certain rookie running back is expected to have a huge year in Atlanta.
Bijan Robinson: Falcons Got a Good One With No. 8 Pick
The Falcons invested some serious draft capital in rookie running back Bijan Robinson and for good reason. Robinson was a stud in Austin the last three years, posting back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons in 2021 and 2022.
Atlanta might not have played the most memorable season, but the Falcons did quietly play with the No. 1 run-blocking offensive line, according to PFF.
You can see that run-blocking power on display in the 2022 production for the Falcons. Rookie fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier ended the year as a 1,000-yard running back, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry.
If that’s what Allgeier did… What could Robinson do?
Atlanta’s powerful offensive line and dynamic run game are why so many sharp bettors are considering the Falcons’ odds to win the NFC South.
Bettors who are willing to get even more exotic with their futures bets might consider narrowing the focus to just Robinson’s performance.
Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards: O/U 1,099.5 Yards
Since Robinson has cleared this number twice on a shorter college schedule, I’m going to go ahead and guess that he can clear it with ease behind Atlanta’s top offense line.
This is probably one of the best NFL betting opportunities anywhere on the board this offseason.
Bijan Robinson Rushing Touchdowns: O/U 8.5 TDs
This number is much trickier. Nine touchdowns can be a lot to expect for any player, let alone a rookie. And as any fantasy football player can tell you, touchdowns can often be subject to the whims of defensive schemes and play-calling choices.
As a team, the Falcons scored a total of 17 rushing touchdowns last year. No one player had more than eight. This is under or pass for me.
Bijan Robinson Injury
As far as the public is aware, Bijan Robinson is coming into the 2023 NFL season as a healthy running back. He did suffer a season-ending dislocated elbow injury late in 2021, and a minor shoulder injury bothered him last season. He appears ready to go now, though.
Bijan Robinson Odds for Offensive Rookie Of the Year
Understandably, Bijan Robinson is currently the favorite (+275) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023.
Given his situation, he’s the right name to be at the top of the board. He’ll also get the chance to go head-to-head against the table’s No. 2 option: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young.
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