Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets: Diontae Johnson’s Quiet Value

If you’re interested in season-long prop bets for specific players, BetMGM has you covered. The online sportsbook has yardage and touchdown props for all of the major players on all 32 NFL teams.

Naturally, that’s a large load of NFL odds to sift through. But I’m doing some of the base-level work so you don’t have to. 

I’ve already taken a look at some of the basic Pittsburgh Steelers futures odds for 2023, including the Steelers’ AFC North odds and AFC Championship odds. Here’s a breakdown of player prop bets for the burgeoning young talent of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Kenny Pickett Passing Yards: O/U 3,125.5 Yards

Kenny Pickett missed a few games last year, ultimately throwing for 2,404 yards in his rookie season in 13 games. He averaged 185 yards per game.

That doesn’t sound like much. However, if he played all 17 games, with the exact same average, he would have totaled… 3,144 yards.

Thus, this average is essentially asking: Do you think Pickett can maintain his position as the No. 24 passer in the NFL? And if so, do you think he can play all 17 games? If not, can he throw for enough extra yards to make up for the lost time?

Even with Pittsburgh’s classic football identity, I’d lean toward an over here.

Kenny Pickett Passing TDs: O/U 19.5 TDs

Kenny Pickett threw for seven total touchdowns in 2022, which puts this a bit outside the bounds of some simple positive regression toward the mean. Pickett and the Steelers’ offense will need to lean harder into its passing game to get closer to this number. 

This is an under for me. 

Najee Harris Rushing Yards: O/U 974.5 Rushing Yards

Harris has played all 17 games and reached 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons in the NFL, despite Pittsburgh’s generally poor run-blocking and limited passing efficacy. Harris has yet to average 4.0 yards per carry because of the immense challenges he faces in the box.

Since this should be Pittsburgh’s most competent offense in a few seasons, I expect his ypc numbers to tick up, even if his total volume decreases a smidge in deference to the growing cast of playmakers on the Pittsburgh offense. 

Najee Harris Rushing Touchdowns: O/U 7.5 TDs

Harris has scored exactly seven rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons as a Steeler.

George Pickens Receiving Yards: O/U 749.5 Receiving Yards

Pickens hauled in 52 receptions for 801 receiving yards in 2022, which was his rookie year. This prop is essentially asking whether or not he can do it again this season.

Personally, I would pass here. There are a lot of variables to work out in the Pittsburgh offense in 2023, and Pickens is a black box. He could go anywhere. 

George Pickens Receiving Touchdowns: O/U 4.5 TDs

Pickens recorded four receiving touchdowns last year, which means he’ll need to record at least one more in 2023 for the over to be in play here.

Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards: O/U 824.5 Receiving Yards

This might be the most fertile prop of any of the Steelers players. Diontae Johnson isn’t a big name, but he’s a target machine in Pittsburgh. 

Since 2019, Johnson has quietly recorded 340 catches for 3,646 receiving yards. He’s had at least 85 receptions and at least 850 receiving yards in each of the last three years. 

I love this over. Johnson is also 50-to-1 to lead the NFL in receptions, which is not a crazy dart throw for a guy that hauled in 107 in 2021.