- The Chiefs are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC
The Denver Broncos (0-0-0) visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (0-0-0) on Sep. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | +3 -125 | 42.5 +100 | +120 |
| Chiefs | -3 -105 | 42.5 -135 | -145 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 51.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 away games (+7.35 Units / 85% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Troy Franklin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Kenneth Walker III has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | -110 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +140 |
| Rashee Rice | +165 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +180 |
| RJ Harvey | +200 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 55.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
| Travis Kelce | 40.5 -111 | 40.5 -118 |
| Xavier Worthy | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 61.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
| RJ Harvey | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 14.5 -120 | 14.5 -110 |
| Bo Nix | 14.5 -115 | 14.5 -115 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.64 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+4.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos were 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .559.
The Broncos are 0-3 (.000) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities (T-lowest in NFL) and 24-6 (.800) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2024 season (2nd-best in NFL).
The Broncos were 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .588.
The Broncos were 5-1 (.833) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .542.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chiefs were winless (0-9) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Chiefs were 1-10 (.091) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Chiefs were 1-7 (.125) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .441.
The Chiefs were winless (0-5) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .408.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs RBs averaged just 73.4 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-lowest in NFL. The Broncos allowed an average of just 91.2 rushing yards per game last season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs were successful on just 22.6% of plays they ran last week — lowest in NFL. The Broncos allowed a success rate of just 23.2% last week — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs averaged just 0.18 epa per play against open coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Broncos allowed just 0.05 epa per play with open coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have a third down conversion rate of 46.0% since Week 10 — T-4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 45.7% since Week 10 — 5th-highest in NFL.
Broncos WRs had just 46.0 receiving yards per game last week — T-2nd-lowest in NFL. The Chiefs averaged just 46.0 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs last week — T-2nd-best in NFL.
Broncos RBs averaged 12.0 yards after the catch in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed 10.2 yards after catch per reception to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-highest in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos averaged just 8.1 yards per play against open coverage last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.
The Broncos ran 43% of their plays in their opponent’s territory last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Broncos threw the ball 56% of the time (613 Pass Attempts/1,092 plays) last season — 4th-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Broncos went three and out on 32% of their drives in the 1st quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs averaged just 1.9 yards per play against tight coverage last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.1.
The Chiefs started 19 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs faced a blitz just 10% of the time last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 30% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense had 30 sacks on 3rd down last season — most in NFL.
The Broncos defense forced 5.3 punts per game last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 3.6.
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 25% in short yardage situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.
The Chiefs defense blitzed on 18% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 6.8 yards per play first read passes last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.9.
The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 47% of pass attempts first read passes last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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