Chargers vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

• The Chiefs are -7.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
• Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (0-5-0) visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0-0) on Oct. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-125).

The Chargers vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Chiefs vs Chargers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 68.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Chiefs vs Chargers and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

• Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 60% ROI)
• Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 50% ROI)
• Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Tre Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Tre Harris has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Kenneth Walker III has hit the Longest Rush Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 55% ROI)
• Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 94% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Longest Rush Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 57% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Chargers

Chargers Best Bets:

• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 67% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.60 Units / 13% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+1.50 Units / 7% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 0-4 (-4.4 Units / -80% ROI).

• Chargers are 0-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -100% ROI
• Chargers are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
• ChargersChargersChargers are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Chiefs are 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 32.39% ROI
• Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

Chargers are 3-10 (.231) when allowing 100 yards rushing or more (T-10th-worst in NFL) and .889 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing since the 2025 season (6th-best in NFL).

The Chargers are winless (0-5) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Chargers are winless (0-6) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.

The Chargers are undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .765.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

Chiefs are 3-7 (.300) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (T-8th-worst in NFL) and .636 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (10th-best in NFL).

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .494.

Chiefs are 10-2 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points (9th-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) after a win this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have an average drive start position from the 31.6 yard line this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed an average drive start position from the 36.4 yard line this season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have been successful on 68.8% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed a success rate of 59.4% on rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have averaged 0.42 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 0.35 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have run just 35.7% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to run just 40.6% of plays in their territory this season — 4th-best in NFL.

Chargers WRs have just 114.6 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged just 108.5 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Chargers have scored on 30% of their drives in the second half this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed scores on 28.6% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have run 32% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Chargers have allowed a QB Hit on 26% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Chargers have run 36% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Chargers have converted first downs on just 16 of 88 plays (18%) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have scored on 62% of their drives (5/8) in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 40% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chiefs have averaged 7.4 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.9.

The Chiefs have converted late downs on 2 of 27 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 3rd quarter in Week 5 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 14.1 on contested throws (69 Pass Attempts) since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 67.9.

The Chargers defense has allowed first downs on just 46% of plays on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Chargers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 46% on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 31% of the time (46 Pass Attempts/147 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 33% in short yardage situations since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Chiefs defense have forced three and outs on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs defense have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.9.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Chiefs vs Chargers and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.

From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!