Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction: Super Bowl 59 Odds, Betting Picks

  • The Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.
  • Jalen Hurts has won eight straight games against the AFC.
  • My Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.

For the second time in the last three years, the Chiefs and the Eagles will meet in the Super Bowl with history on the line.ย 

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who earned a 32-29 win over the Bills in the AFC Championship, can become the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowls.ย 

To do so, theyโ€™ll face an Eagles side off a 55-23 blowout win against the Commanders in the NFC Championship. In Super Bowl 57, Kansas City handed Philadelphia a 38-35 defeat.ย 

Bet on Chiefs vs. Eaglesย with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

Super Bowl 59 Odds: Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction

Based on the quality of both defenses and the matchup disadvantages for both offenses, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction is Under 49.5 Points (-110).ย 

How this total is so high remains a complete mystery to me. Accordingly, itโ€™s the perfect time to sell high on two high-scoring games from these sides.ย 

But those games proved as high scoring due to the lack of defensive quality from both underdogs.ย 

The Eagles, which ranked 13th in offensive DVOA during the regular season, exposed an injured Commanders defense that ranked 23rd in the corresponding defensive category.ย 

The issue with Philadelphiaโ€™s offense? Theyโ€™ve played the easiest set of opposing defenses this season.ย 

Dating back to Week 6, Philadelphia played only three games against teams 14th or better in defensive DVOA.ย 

Their outputs in those games: 24 against Baltimore, 27 against Pittsburgh and 22 against Green Bay.ย 

Now theyโ€™ll face a Chiefs defense that performs better against the run. The Chiefs rank ninth in rush defense DVOA compared to 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

At the same time, Philadelphiaโ€™s defense ranks first in defensive DVOA, having faced the 16th-hardest set of opposing offenses.ย 

Dating back to Week 6, the Eagles faced seven offenses 10th or better in DVOA. Opponents averaged only 20.7 points in those seven contests.ย 

Finally, Super Bowls featuring a high total rarely feature loads of points. Nine big games since 2003 have seen a total higher than 49 points, with seven staying under the total.ย 

Plus, two Eagles games have closed with a total higher than 49 points this season: vs. Washington and Baltimore.ย 

Both stayed under the total.ย 

Pair those defensive trends with the extended rest for both teams and a lower-scoring game should be expected.ย 


Based on Kansas Cityโ€™s weak record against top defenses in the first half and the extended rest factor, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction is the Chiefs Under 13.5 1H Points (-125).ย 

Philadelphia, in terms of first half metrics, is far and away the best defense in the NFL.ย 

The Eagles lead the league in both first-half defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.ย 

How have the Chiefs fared against similar competition?ย 

Theyโ€™ve played seven teams ranked 10th or better in one of those categories.ย 

Against the top-10 in first-half EPA per play: 4-3 to the under against this number, with two successes against teams ranked ninth and 10th.ย 

The only other success? At home against Houston, who played on short rest. That wonโ€™t be the case for Philadelphia.ย 

How about the teams 10th or better in first-half defensive success rate?ย 

Kansas City played seven games against such teams, with five overlapping games across samples.ย 

The Chiefs finished 5-2 to the under against this number in those seven games. In addition to the aforementioned success against Houston, the other came against Cleveland (10th).ย 

That creates a strong sell-high spot on the Chiefs following a 21-point first half against Buffalo. That said, bet this only if it remains at 13.5 points.

Betting Chiefs vs. Eagles: NFL Public Betting

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
Bets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Eagles52%64%60%57%
Chiefs48%36%40%43%
jamie-foxx-latest-promo-9-24
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.