NFL Public Betting: Chiefs, Lions Early Futures Targets

With the NFL offseason in full swing, I’m here to deliver an NFL public betting report for the Super Bowl futures market. 

Normally, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of index futures market, it’s defined as plurality support.

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count. 

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines. 

NFL Public Betting Odds Report – Super Bowl Futures

As of April 26, the Kansas City Chiefs (+650) is the public Super Bowl futures side at BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Chiefs, who won Super Bowl LVIII, have received 16% of all tickets and 23.4% of the total handle at BetMGM. 

That’s down slightly from 17.9% of tickets and 27.9% of the total handle on March 11.

As a function of that percentage, the Chiefs have two times the amount of money to win the Super Bowl than any other team and have dropped from +750 to +650. 

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage: 

• Detroit Lions (+1200): 10.7% of tickets
• Baltimore Ravens (+900): 5.6% of tickets
• San Francisco 49ers (+600): 5.1% of tickets
• Green Bay Packers (+2000): 5.1% of tickets
• Cincinnati Bengals (+1400): 4.9% of tickets
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000): 4.7% of tickets
• Buffalo Bills (+1400): 4.6% of tickets
• Cleveland Browns (+4000): 4.2% of tickets
• All Other Teams: Less than 4% of tickets

NFL Sharp Betting Odds Report – Super Bowl Futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market. 

The Chiefs, for one, have received a significantly higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target. 

Three other teams fit the sharp betting trend line: Buffalo, Green Bay and San Francisco. 

The Bills have received only 4.6% of all tickets compared to 6.1% of the total handle. 

As for Green Bay and San Francisco, they’ve both received 5.1% of tickets. In terms of the handle, San Francisco is sitting on 6.3% while Green Bay is on 6.2%. 

NFL Public Betting Odds Report – AFC & NFC Championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference. 

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of April 26:

• Kansas City Chiefs (+350): 18.3% of tickets
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200): 10.7% of tickets
• Houston Texans (+750): 10.5% of tickets
• Cincinnati Bengals (+750): 9.0% of tickets
• Cleveland Browns (+2200): 7.9% of tickets
• Baltimore Ravens (+450): 7.9% of tickets
• New York Jets (+1400): 7.8% of tickets
• All Other Teams Under 5.5% of ticket count

As for the NFC, here are the top teams by ticket count as of April 26:

• Detroit Lions (+500): 23.8% of tickets
• Green Bay Packers (+900): 17.5% of tickets
• Philadelphia Eagles (+700): 8.5% of tickets
• San Francisco 49ers (+240): 8.1% of tickets
• Chicago Bears (+1800): 7.8% of tickets
• Dallas Cowboys (+800): 6.0% of tickets
• Atlanta Falcons (+1400): 5.8% of tickets
• All Other Teams Under 5.0% of ticket count

NFL Sharp Betting Odds Report – AFC & NFC Championship

Three teams have, thus far, drawn higher handle percentages in the AFC Championship winner market compared to their bets percentage. 

First are the Chiefs and Browns. As of April 26, those teams have received 32.6% and 9.0% of the total handle. 

In terms of the NFC, Detroit, Green Bay and San Francisco are widely popular from a handle perspective. 

The Lions and Packers account for 26.3% and 17.6% of all dollars, respectively, while the 49ers have received 11.2% of the total handle. 

The Falcons and Bears have also seen higher handle percentages. 

Atlanta has seen 7.8% of all dollars against only 5.8% of tickets, while Chicago has received 9.6% of all dollars on 7.8% of tickets. 

NFL Public Betting Odds Report – Division Winner Futures

In addition to the Super Bowl and conference winner markets, here’s a look at the top bets percentage and handle percentage for each division. 

AFC East

• Highest Ticket%: Jets 51.1%
• Highest Handle%: Jets 82.2%

AFC North

• Highest Ticket%: Steelers 60.0%
• Highest Handle%: Steelers 54.1%

AFC South

• Highest Ticket%: Texans 64.9%
• Highest Handle%: Texans 81.5%

AFC West

• Highest Ticket%: Chiefs 42.1%
• Highest Handle%: Chiefs 89.4%

NFC East

• Highest Ticket%: Commanders 44.1%
• Highest Handle%: Commanders 51.1%

NFC North

• Highest Ticket%: Bears 32.3%
• Highest Handle%: Lions 49.9%

NFC South

• Highest Ticket%: Falcons 43.1%
• Highest Handle%: Falcons 75.8%

NFC West

• Highest Ticket%: Rams 35.0%
• Highest Handle%: Cardinals 27.7%