NFL Public Betting: Super Bowl, AFC, NFC & Team Win Totals

With the NFL offseason in full swing, I’m here to deliver an NFL public betting report for the Super Bowl futures market. 

Normally, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of index futures market, it’s defined as plurality support.

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count. 

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines. 

NFL Public Betting: Super Bowl 59 Futures

As of June 27, the Kansas City Chiefs (+650) is the public Super Bowl futures side at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Chiefs, who won Super Bowl LVIII, have received 15% of all bets placed and 20.9% of all money at BetMGM. Accordingly, the Chiefs have dropped from +750 to +600. 

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage: 

• Detroit Lions (+1200): 11.3% of bets placed
• Baltimore Ravens (+1100): 6.2% of bets placed
• San Francisco 49ers (+650): 6.0% of bets placed
• Green Bay Packers (+1600): 5.0% of bets placed
• Cincinnati Bengals (+1400): 4.9% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (+1400): 4.7% of bets placed
• Buffalo Bills (+1400): 4.3% of bets placed
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000): 4.1% of bets placed
• All Other Teams: Less than 4% of bets placed

NFL Sharp Betting: Super Bowl 59 Futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market. 

The Chiefs, for one, have received a significantly higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target. 

Three other teams fit the sharp betting trend line: Buffalo, Green Bay and San Francisco. 

The Bills have received only 4.3% of all bets placed compared to 5.5% of the money. 

As for San Francisco and Green Bay, they’re sitting on 8.7% and 5.6% of the money, respectively. 

NFL Public Betting: AFC Championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference. 

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of June 28:

• Kansas City Chiefs (+300): 17.7% of bets placed
• Houston Texans (+750): 10.5% of bets placed
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200): 9.5% of bets placed
• Cincinnati Bengals (+750): 9.1% of bets placed
• Baltimore Ravens (+550): 8.7% of bets placed
• New York Jets (+1200): 8.6% of bets placed
• Cleveland Browns (+2200): 7.6% of bets placed
• All Other Teams Under 5.5% of bets placed

NFL Public Betting: NFC Championship

• Detroit Lions (+550): 26.8% of bets placed
• Green Bay Packers (+750): 14.3% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (+650): 9.9% of bets placed
• San Francisco 49ers (+275): 8.6% of bets placed
• Chicago Bears (+1400): 7.9% of bets placed
• Dallas Cowboys (+850): 6.2% of bets placed
• All Other Teams Under 4.5% of bets placed

NFL Sharp Betting: AFC Championship

Two teams have, thus far, drawn at least a 3% money difference in the AFC Championship winner market compared to their bets percentage. 

The Chiefs are first on the list as they’ve drawn 29.3% of the money on only 17.7% of bets to win the AFC.

Another popular side in terms of handle is the New York Jets, who have attracted 12% of money on 8.6% of bets.

In terms of the NFC, four teams have accounted for 66.4% of the money with all three outperforming their bets percentage. 

Those teams are the Lions, Packers, Eagles and 49ers. Of those four teams, the Eagles and 49ers own the largest deltas: +2.7% and +3.4%, respectively.

NFL Public Betting: Division Winners

AFC East Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Jets 56.4%
• Highest Money%: Jets 81.5%

AFC North Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Steelers 57.2%
• Highest Money%: Steelers 54.2%

AFC South Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Texans 60.6%
• Highest Money%: Texans 83.7%

AFC West Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Chiefs 47.6%
• Highest Money%: Chiefs 87.8%

NFC East Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Eagles 47.5%
• Highest Money%: Eagles 67.9%

NFC North Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Bears 35.3%
• Highest Money%: Lions 49.6%

NFC South Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Falcons 41%
• Highest Money%: Falcons 72.7%

NFC West Winner: Public Betting

• Highest Bets Placed%: Rams 33.7%
• Highest Money%: Rams 30.4%

NFL Public Betting: 2024 Season Win Totals

Finally, rounding out the championship futures markets are the 2024 season win totals at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Although the season is still a few months away, a few teams have attracted notable handle percentages on both the over and under.

These five teams have received the highest percentage of tickets to go over their season win total:

• Los Angeles Rams Over 8.5 Wins (-135, 96% of tickets)
• Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins (+105, 93% of tickets)
• Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-115, 88% of tickets)
• Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins (-145, 87% of tickets)
• Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 Wins (+100, 83% of tickets)

Conversely, these five teams have received the highest percentage of tickets to finish under their season win total:

• Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins (-165, 71% of tickets)
• Buffalo Bills Under 10.5 Wins (-140, 62% of tickets)
• Miami Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins (+115, 59% of tickets)
• Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins (-160, 57% of tickets)
• Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 Wins (+115, 56% of tickets)