NFL Public Betting: 2024 Championship Futures, Win Totals

min read
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce during warmups before an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023 in Kansas City, Mo.
(Reed Hoffmann/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 30, 2024, 12:36 PM
  • The Chiefs have received a plurality of tickets and handle to win the Super Bowl.
  • This AFC North Team has received ample attention in all championship futures markets and to clear their win total.
  • One AFC East side has received 97% of the handle to finish under their 2024 season win total.

With the NFL offseason in full swing, I’m here to deliver an NFL public betting report for the Super Bowl futures market. 

Normally, public support is defined as when a side receives more than 51% of all tickets. In terms of index futures market, it’s defined as plurality support.

Bettors can identify sharp support when a team receives more money compared to their ticket count. 

With that established, let’s get to this week’s data based on NFL betting lines

NFL Public Betting – Super Bowl Futures

As of May 29, the Kansas City Chiefs (+650) is the public Super Bowl futures side at the BetMGM online sportsbook

The Chiefs, who won Super Bowl LVIII, have received 16% of all tickets and 21.6% of the total handle at BetMGM. 

That’s down slightly from 17.9% of tickets and 23.4% of the total handle on April 26.

As a function of that percentage, the Chiefs have dropped from +750 to +600. 

Here are a few other popular teams based on their current ticket percentage: 

  • Detroit Lions (+1200): 11.4% of tickets
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1100): 5.8% of tickets
  • San Francisco 49ers (+650): 5.4% of tickets
  • Green Bay Packers (+1600): 5.1% of tickets
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+1400): 4.9% of tickets
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+1400): 4.5% of tickets
  • Buffalo Bills (+1400): 4.4% of tickets
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000): 4.3% of tickets
  • All Other Teams: Less than 4% of tickets

NFL Sharp Betting – Super Bowl Futures

A few teams can be identified as sharply supported based on their handle percentages in the futures market. 

The Chiefs, for one, have received a significantly higher money percentage than their ticket count. As a result, they’re the first sharp target. 

Three other teams fit the sharp betting trend line: Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco and Detroit. 

The Bills have received only 4.4% of all tickets compared to 5.6% of the total handle. 

As for Detroit, San Francisco and Green Bay, they’re sitting on 12%, 6.9% and 5.9% of the total handle, respectively. Those represent positive deltas of +0.6%, +1.5% and +0.8% compared to their bets percentage. 

NFL Public Betting – AFC & NFC Championship

Largely, there’s a strong correlation between teams’ Super Bowl futures trends and their percentages to claim their respective conference. 

Beginning with the AFC, here are the top teams in terms of their bets percentages as of May 29:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+350): 18.1% of tickets
  • Houston Texans (+750): 10.6% of tickets
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200): 10.2% of tickets
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+750): 9.0% of tickets
  • New York Jets (+1200): 8.8% of tickets
  • Baltimore Ravens (+550): 8.2% of tickets
  • Cleveland Browns (+2200): 7.6% of tickets
  • All Other Teams Under 5.5% of ticket count

As for the NFC, here are the top teams by ticket count as of May 29:

  • Detroit Lions (+550): 25.6% of tickets
  • Green Bay Packers (+750): 15.6% of tickets
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+650): 9.8% of tickets
  • Chicago Bears (+1400): 8.8% of tickets
  • San Francisco 49ers (+275): 7.5% of tickets
  • Dallas Cowboys (+850): 5.4% of tickets
  • Atlanta Falcons (+1200): 4.7% of tickets
  • All Other Teams Under 4.5% of ticket count

NFL Sharp Betting – AFC & NFC Championship

Three teams have, thus far, drawn higher handle percentages in the AFC Championship winner market compared to their bets percentage. 

The Chiefs are first on the list as they’ve drawn 30.9% of the total handle on only 18.1% of tickets to win the AFC.

Another popular side in terms of handle is the New York Jets, who have attracted 12.8% of handle on 8.8% of bets. Finally, the Browns have received a slightly higher percentage in handle. As of this writing, they’ve received 8.2% of the handle on 7.6% of tickets. 

In terms of the NFC, three teams have accounted for 55.7% of the total handle with all three outperforming their ticket percentage. 

The Lions have garnered 27.8% of the handle on 25.6% of tickets with the Packers attracting 16% of handle on 15.6% of tickets.

Finally, the Eagles have risen up the leaderboard in terms of handle popularity. Currently, they’re sitting on 11.9% of handle on 9.8% of tickets.

A month ago, Philadelphia had received only 8.5% of the ticket count.

NFL Public Betting – Division Winner Futures

In addition to the Super Bowl and conference winner markets, here’s a look at the top bets percentage and handle percentage for each division. 

AFC East

  • Highest Ticket%: Jets 56.4%
  • Highest Handle%: Jets 81.5%

AFC North

  • Highest Ticket%: Steelers 57.2%
  • Highest Handle%: Steelers 54.2%

AFC South

  • Highest Ticket%: Texans 60.6%
  • Highest Handle%: Texans 83.7%

AFC West

  • Highest Ticket%: Chiefs 47.6%
  • Highest Handle%: Chiefs 87.8%

NFC East

  • Highest Ticket%: Eagles 47.5%
  • Highest Handle%: Eagles 67.9%

NFC North

  • Highest Ticket%: Bears 35.3%
  • Highest Handle%: Lions 49.6%

NFC South

  • Highest Ticket%: Falcons 41%
  • Highest Handle%: Falcons 72.7%

NFC West

  • Highest Ticket%: Rams 33.7%
  • Highest Handle%: Rams 30.4%

NFL Public Betting – 2024 Win Totals

Finally, rounding out the championship futures markets are the 2024 season win totals at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Although the season is still a few months away, a few teams have attracted notable handle percentages on both the over and under.

These five teams have received the highest percentage of money to go over their season win total:

  • Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins (99% of the money)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins (99% of the money)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Wins (99% of the money)
  • New York Jets: 9.5 Wins (98% of the money)
  • Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Wins (97% of the money)

Conversely, these five teams have received the highest percentage of handle to finish under their season win total:

  • Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins (97% of the money)
  • Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins (87% of the money)
  • Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 Wins (72% of the money)
  • Washington Commanders: 6.5 Wins (64% of the money)
  • New York Giants: 6.5 Wins (58% of the money)

NFL Betting Odds at BetMGM

BetMGM is the premier destination for NFL betting odds throughout the season.

Whether you’re a new bettor checking out weekly spreads, a casual fan tracking live NFL betting odds, or a longtime football building moneyline parlays, and more there’s something for everyone at the best online sportsbook.

If you’re new to the online sportsbook, register today with a sportsbook welcome bonus. And check out sportsbook promos each time you log in.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.