NFL Expert Picks: Week 6 Bets Include Seahawks, Bucs

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 6 based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

Odds for predictions are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Week 6 Expert Picks 2026

Broncos vs Seahawks Prediction: Seahawks Moneyline (-150)

Based on Denver’s lucky record so far and Seattle’s misleading defensive record against the Niners, my Broncos vs Seahawks prediction is the Seahawks Moneyline (-150). 

Denver owns a winning record despite a negative point differential. They’ve now won three games despite earning a halftime lead only once in five tries.

Guess who won’t blow a halftime advantage? Seattle’s defense. Since taking over as head coach, Mike Macdonald is 21-3 when he takes a halftime lead. All three losses came in 2024.

A historical trend suggests the Seahawks are in a good spot on short rest.

Teams playing a non-divisional game with an average victory margin between -2.2 and -4.3 are 12-44, assuming their win percentage falls between 55 and 61%. This week, that’s Denver.

More concerning is how the Broncos try to move the ball on Seattle’s defense. Against the 49ers, Seattle surrendered three scoring drives under 20 yards before halftime.

In fact, the 49ers failed to register a drive over 50 yards until the 4th quarter!

Denver, excluding Week 5, pales in comparison to San Francisco’s offense. The Niners entered Week 5 ranked first in offensive DVOA, whereas the Broncos ranked 15th, per FTN Fantasy.

On defense, Denver could miss Patrick Surtain for a second straight game. Without him, the unit lacks an answer for reigning OPOY Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Entering Week 5, Seattle ranked fifth in pass offense DVOA. Denver, before playing a banged-up Chargers offense, ranked 12th in the corresponding defensive category.

This is not the Rams defense where Denver can produce a high-variance outcome and win on defense. Barring a bunch of fluky turnovers, I predict the Seahawks win on TNF.

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Texans Over 19.5 Points (-145)

Based on Jacksonville’s misleading defensive record and the Texans’ strong passing game with Nico Collins, my Jaguars vs Texans prediction is the Texans Over 19.5 Points (-145).

Legitimately, the only advantage Jacksonville has in this game is the continuity factor. Purely from a matchup standpoint, this offers a potential negative regression spot for the defense.

Before Week 5, I covered how the Jaguars defense is wildly misleading. Somewhat unsurprisingly, regression failed to materialize against a short-handed Eagles team.

What remains mind-numbing is how well the Eagles threw on Jacksonville in the first half. In the opening 30 minutes, the Eagles recorded a +0.511 dropback EPA per play.

Although it came via high-leverage third downs, the Texans offense poses a significantly higher challenge for Jacksonville.

For the season, Philadelphia ranks 25th in pass offense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Houston – including a period without Nico Collins – ranks sixth.

Houston’s best offensive performances came with Nico Collins available. In Week 1 and Week 4, the offense averaged a 47.1% pass offense DVOA rating against Buffalo and Dallas.

Without Collins, Houston averaged a 3.7% pass offense DVOA rating against Cincy and Indy. After Week 5 in Tennessee, Houston’s pass offense DVOA rating rose from 25.4% to 32.9%.

Jacksonville surrendered three red zone attempts in three of five games this year. The only games where they surrendered under 2.5 came against Cleveland and Philadelphia.

The last time we saw these teams play, Davis Mills led the offense to 30 points. While Travis Hunter missed the game for Jacksonville, the same can be said for C.J. Stroud.

Add in the Marvin Harrison Jr. acquisition, and I predict the Texans clear a low number as underdogs on Sunday.

Browns vs Ravens Prediction: Ravens Over 23.5 Points (-120)

Based on Cleveland’s lucky defensive record and the unit’s lack of run-stopping prowess, my Browns vs Ravens prediction is the Ravens Over 23.5 Points (-120).

It’s time to sell high on the Browns’ run defense in an unfavorable matchup.

After posting weak run defense grades in Weeks 1-2, the Browns showed signs of improvement in the last three games.

However, achieving the feat against Carolina, Pittsburgh and a Breece Hall-less Jets is hardly an accomplishment. Against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, Cleveland struggled to stop the run.

In their first two games, the Browns defense averaged a -0.3% rush defense DVOA rating. Over the last three games: -15%.

Now the unit gets a Ravens offense with superior rushing metrics to both the Bucs and Jaguars. Entering Week 6, Baltimore ranks fifth in rush offense DVOA.

Declan Doyle’s offense either boomed or busted on the ground this season. The unit recorded three performances north of 22% with two performances under -22%.

Last week in Atlanta, Baltimore recorded a 22.6% rush offense DVOA grade against a previously strong Falcons run defense.

Over the entire season, Cleveland offers an easier test. The Browns rank 17th in rush defense DVOA for the year, whereas Atlanta sits 11th in the category, per FTN Fantasy.

Plus, Cleveland projects as a strong negative regression candidate on defense.

Particularly concerning is the defensive performance against Tampa Bay, when the Browns posted their worst rush defense DVOA grade (2.1%).

The Bucs notched four red zone chances, but they converted only one into a touchdown.

Tampa Bay still scored 19 points despite the red zone inefficiency. Last week, Baltimore converted three-of-four red zone trips into touchdowns.

Accordingly, I predict the Ravens continue their strong offensive record against a weaker-than-perceived Browns defense.

Falcons vs Bears Prediction: Total Over 48 Points (-110)

Based on Chicago’s poor defensive record against halfway decent offenses and Caleb Williams’ likely return, my Falcons vs Bears prediction is the Total Over 48 Points (-110).

To me, this game should resemble Panthers vs Bears in Week 1. Both offenses should score and answer repeatedly against two questionable defenses.

Chicago’s offense looked horrific in Week 5 against Green Bay. Five turnovers resigned the Bears to only seven points against a unit that has looked suspect in recent weeks.

In Week 1, Chicago registered four red zone opportunities and 59 points against Carolina. Caleb Williams practiced fully on Friday and appears to be trending toward a return.

He and Ben Johnson should eviscerate Atlanta’s defense. At full strength, I rate the Bears offense ahead of all of Atlanta’s recent opponents.

Excluding Week 5, Atlanta sits eighth in defensive DVOA. However, they’ve faced the 23rd-hardest set of opposing offenses.

That said, there’s no world in which I trust the Bears defense gets stops. The unit performed well against the Eagles and Jets, performances that looked expected with time.

Excluding Week 5, Chicago ranks 29th in rush defense DVOA. That should prove a problem against a Falcons rushing attack trending positively since Week 3.

Given those factors, I predict the Bears and Falcons both contribute here and clear a lofty total.

Buccaneers vs Steelers Prediction: Buccaneers Spread (+2.5, -102)

Based on Pittsburgh’s misleading defensive record and the Buccaneers’ fluky losses this season, my Buccaneers vs Steelers prediction is the Bucs Spread (+2.5, -102).

For the previous three games, the Steelers defense has played atrociously. Now you get them as a road favorite in a sell-high spot off a misleading victory.

The Steelers offense scored 34 points against Indianapolis. However, the offense reached the red zone only twice over the entire game.

Jaylen Warren scored an 80-yard touchdown on a screen pass in the first quarter. In the second half, he reeled off a 50-yard rushing touchdown.

Of the Steelers’ 352 yards, 37% came on two plays!

Tampa Bay ended its four-game losing streak with a win over Dallas last Thursday. It gives Todd Bowles’ team a rest advantage over the Steelers for their Week 6 encounter.

Schematically, the Bucs match up well with Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay’s offensive line provides a strong counter to Pittsburgh’s pass rush while the passing game showed signs of life in Dallas.

Jalon Daniels completed 19-of-25 passes for 189 yards. Red zone attempts finished 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s favor as lofty underdogs.

While the margin of victory likely flatters Tampa Bay, the offense still looked good. Pittsburgh also lacks the offensive weapons to score points against a shaky Bucs secondary.

Given those factors, I predict the Buccaneers cover the spread at home.

Raiders vs Bills Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (+225)

Based on the Raiders’ strong offense, the Bills’ wildly inconsistent defense, and the spot for Las Vegas, my Raiders vs Bills prediction is the Raiders Moneyline (+225).

I’m going to embrace the volatility in this game rather than taking the points with the home dog. My attitude in taking on the Bills is that if they cover, they win going away.

Let’s talk about the spot, though, and why I think a Buffalo blowout is unlikely. The Bills captured an overtime win on MNF against the Rams and now stay on the West Coast for this game.

The defense, which is already bad, faced 78 plays against the Rams. Despite two turnovers, the Bills used special teams brilliance to counter how poorly the defense played.

One might counter with “but they played the best offense in the league”! A fair point, but we’ve seen the Raiders offense move the ball well as a previous home underdog.

As +4.5 home pups against the Chiefs, Las Vegas scored 27 points in a cover.

Klint Kubiak’s team led 19-17 in the fourth quarter and allowed two straight scores, one after Las Vegas fumbled on a kick return.

Still, Las Vegas averaged 5.6 yards per play and earned two red zone trips. Zero touchdowns on those two trips doomed the underdog as the Chiefs claimed an outright win.

Las Vegas still ranks 13th in pass offense DVOA and passes the eye test since Brock Bowers returned. The unit gets a Buffalo defense that, excluding Monday, ranked 27th in pass defense.

In the Raiders’ Week 5 loss at New England, they lost because New England exploited the secondary. Right now, Buffalo lacks the passing weapons to achieve the same feat.

Given those factors, I give the Raiders a punching chance in a buy-low, sell-high opportunity.

NFL Week 6 Predictions by Public Consensus

Get up-to-date NFL public betting data on all Week 6 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.