- The Packers are -7 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Atlanta Falcons (0-2-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (1-1-0) on Sep. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in Green Bay, WI.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (+105).
The Falcons vs. Packers Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | +7 -140 | 44.5 -130 | +230 |
| Packers | -7 +105 | 44.5 -105 | -275 |
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 71.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 56.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 88% ROI)
- Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Matthew Golden has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.90 Units / 72% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Packers vs Falcons
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +350 |
| Christian Watson | +775 |
| Matthew Golden | +950 |
| Tucker Kraft | +1000 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Packers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | -165 |
| Christian Watson | +130 |
| Matthew Golden | +165 |
| Tucker Kraft | +175 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | +180 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Packers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 |
| Christian Watson | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 |
| Matthew Golden | 51.5 -125 | 51.5 -105 |
| Tucker Kraft | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson | 40.5 -115 | 40.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Packers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 78.5 -115 | 78.5 -115 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 35.5 -115 | 35.5 -115 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 28.5 -111 | 28.5 -118 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 21.5 -115 | 21.5 -115 |
| Chris Brooks | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.63 Units / 38% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Falcons are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- FalconsFalconsFalcons are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -50% ROI).
- Packers are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Packers are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Packers are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
Falcons are 2-9 (.182) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (6th-worst in NFL) and .750 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-9th-best in NFL).
The Falcons are winless (0-5) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Falcons are 6-2 (.750) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2025 season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .647.
The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .328.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
Packers are 8-3 (.727) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down (8th-best in NFL) and just .143 when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down since the 2025 season (3rd-worst in NFL).
Packers are 8-1-1 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns (8th-best in NFL) and just .222 when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (T-7th-worst in NFL).
The Packers are 1-5-1 (.143) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Packers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been successful on just 33.3% of rush attempts this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed a success rate of just 33.3% on rush attempts this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Packers have been successful on just 36.8% of plays they have run this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed a success rate of just 36.7% this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Packers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have run just 39.5% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to run just 34.6% of plays in their territory this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have been successful on just 35.5% of plays they have run this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed a success rate of just 34.6% this season — best in NFL.
The Falcons have thrown the ball just 43.5% of the time this season — T-2nd-lowest in NFL. The Packers have allowed just 5.4 yards per dropback this season — 5th-best in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons committed 5 turnovers in Week 2 — most in NFL.
The Falcons have committed 7 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
The Falcons have run none of their plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Falcons have targeted RBs 30% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/54 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers have faced a blitz 37 times this season — most in NFL.
The Packers have averaged 16.3 yards per play against open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.4.
The Packers have faced a blitz 32% of the time this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 8%.
The Packers have averaged 10.1 yards per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has allowed 4 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 28% of plays with a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 28% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
36% of the plays ran against the Falcons were in the red zone in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 17% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Only 25% of the plays ran against the Packers were in their own territory in Week 2 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Packers defense has allowed 5.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (572 yards / 103 touches) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Packers defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 4% when opponents had 7-10 yards to go since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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