Jets vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

• The Bears are -3 point favorites vs the Jets
• Total (Over/Under): 43 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The New York Jets (1-2-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (2-1-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Chicago, IL.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-130).

The Jets vs. Bears Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Jets vs. Bears Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 63.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Bears Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

• Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 46% ROI)
• Breece Hall has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Mason Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
• Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
• Geno Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

• D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Colston Loveland has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kyle Monangai has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Jets

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Jets

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Jets

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Jets

Jets Best Bets:

• The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

• The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 1-0 (+1 Units / 30.3% ROI).

• Jets are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -33.33% ROI
• Jets are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• JetsJetsJets are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Bears are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 10.64% ROI
• Bears are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Bears are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Jets are 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2025 season — 6th-worst in NFL. The Bears have intercepted 26 passes since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.

The Jets are winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .347.

The Jets are winless (0-6) when allowing 250 or more passing yards since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .449.

The Jets are 1-10 (.091) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Bears are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .708.

The Bears are 9-1 (.900) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the 2025 season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .840.

The Bears are 12-2 (.857) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .726.

The Bears are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .517.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears ran 65.7% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — best in NFL. The Jets allowed their opponents to run62.9% of plays in their territory last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Bears have run 52.1% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed their opponents to run 52.4% of plays in their territory since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bears scored on 55.6% of their drives last week — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jets defense allowed scores on 55.6% of opponent drives last week — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of just 12.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 13.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Jets are 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2025 season — 6th-worst in NFL. The Bears have intercepted 26 passes since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.

The Jets have gained at least 5 yards on 51.8% of first down plays this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed at least 5 yards on 50.7% of first down plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets have averaged 0.68 epa per play against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.

The Jets are averaging 10.6 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2025 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.5.

The Jets have averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 1st half since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Jets have averaged just 1.1 yards per play against a light rush since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.7.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears have 5 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Bears have rushed for 20+ yards 4 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Bears have rushed for 7 TDs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Bears have started 7 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2025 season — fewest in NFL.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Jets defense has allowed 13 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Jets defense has allowed first downs on 8% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 65% of plays in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears defense have allowed 12.6 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.

The Bears defense has allowed first downs on just 7% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Bears defense has allowed first downs on 26% of plays on plays when they have pressured the QB since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bears defense has allowed a passer rating of just 41.2 on 3rd and long (83 Pass Attempts) since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 82.5.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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