NFL Betting Trends: Historical Angles for Week 1

Week 1 offers one of the most exciting and unpredictable weeks of the NFL regular season.

For bettors, the only information to evaluate NFL odds is last year’s performances. However, teams have undergone coaching changes, gotten healthier and lost personnel.

How all those changes play out on the field remains largely unknown. It leads to an emphasis on historical betting trends during Week 1.

It’s important to recognize that past performances do not guarantee future successes. That said, here are some of the Week 1 betting trends that have returned a positive ROI.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 1

Game Totals Generally Favor the Under

History tells us offenses usually take some time to find their rhythm.

Since 2005, Week 1 unders have hit at a 55% rate. Since 2015 – the year extra points moved back – those games are 96-79 to the under, a 54.9% hit rate.

The last two years have seen mixed results since the introduction of a new kickoff rule. The 2024-25 season saw seven games go under the total in Week 1. Last year, the figure rose to 12.

In a small sample size, games featuring larger totals in Week 1 tend to favor the under. Over the last two years, 23 games closed with a total north of 43, with 15 staying under the total.

However, 11 of those 15 successes came in the 2025-26 season.

Good ATS Teams From Last Year Did Well

This is a very small sample size, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, teams that posted an above-average ATS percentage the prior season continued their success.

Over the last two years, teams that posted a 50-59% ATS rate the prior year went 15-7 ATS in Week 1 since 2024.

That system returned a positive ROI in three straight years:

• 2023-24: 5-3 (+18.7% ROI)
• 2024-25: 9-5 (+22.9% ROI)
• 2025-26: 6-2 (+43.9% ROI)

Over a larger sample size, teams saw an increased hit rate playing teams that made the postseason.

Since 2021, teams with an ATS percentage between 50 and 59% against prior playoff teams are 20-7 ATS, including 10-2 as a market favorite.

This year’s matches are the 49ers, Falcons, Texans, Vikings and Panthers.

Worth noting: teams that missed the playoffs against a team that made it are on a 9-2 ATS run. That’s Atlanta and Minnesota.

A Scenario Where Favorites Have Performed Well

Week 1 favorites have provided superior results in games featuring two good teams.

Since 2005, Week 1 games pitting two playoff teams against one another have seen favorites go 33-21-1 ATS.

The system assumes a non-neutral site game. Over the last four years, those teams went 8-5 ATS, including 4-1 as a road favorite. Since ‘05, those road favorites are 10-6 ATS.

Both home and road teams produced a near-equal ROI between -2.5 and -6. Since ‘06, favorites within that range are 24-6-1 ATS – 16-4-1 at home, 8-2 on the road.

This year, those two teams are Chicago and Seattle. Buffalo also qualifies as a 1.5-point favorite at Houston.