Below, bettors can find the latest NFL odds for the Week 7 action along with individual game matchup analysis.
NFL Opening Lines for Week 7
Thursday Night Football: Bears vs Patriots
Matchup Analysis: Most fascinating about this matchup is how the Bears offense matches up with New England’s defense. Jacksonville and Buffalo ran the ball well on New England’s defense, a strategy the Bears could replicate.
They’ll have to produce a strong offensive effort to win this game. New England’s skill group should dominate Chicago’s defense, which has only looked good against Philadelphia and the New York Jets.
Saints vs Steelers Odds (Paris)
Matchup Analysis: Both offenses should enjoy success moving the ball against the opposing defense.
Pittsburgh has run the ball well since Week 3, buoyed by a high explosive play rate. From Week 3-5, Pittsburgh recorded a 49.2% rushing success rate, the third-best mark in the NFL.
That said, the Steelers secondary leaves much to be desired. Indianapolis, a team that posted two pass DVOA grades beneath -45%, recorded a 29% rating against Pittsburgh in Week 5. New Orleans should replicate that trend with Chris Olave healthy.
Ravens vs Bengals Odds
Matchup Analysis: Cincinnati enjoyed a bye week before this critical division matchup. Offensively, the Bengals should replicate how other teams moved the ball on Baltimore in recent games.
After posting a -52.5% pass defense DVOA rating against the Colts, the Ravens recorded four straight below-average ratings.
Key for the Ravens offense is whether the offense throws the ball well. Cincinnati, against the Steelers and Jaguars, averaged a 35.4% pass defense DVOA rating.
Vikings vs Colts Odds
Matchup Analysis: We’re going to learn a lot about the Vikings in this game. Miami showed good rushing attacks can exploit the Vikings defense as the Dolphins posted a 13% rush DVOA rating.
Indianapolis struggled to run the ball against Houston but succeeded in their four other games. For the season, Indy ranks seventh in rushing DVOA.
Defensively, Lou Anarumo’s Colts defense has proven extremely volatile. Now, the team gets a Vikings offense that ranks 30th in DVOA. Which teams wins this matchup likely decides the game outcome.
Falcons vs 49ers Odds
Matchup Analysis: This might prove a potential sell-high spot on the 49ers run defense. Save for an advantageous Week 1 spot in Australia, Raheem Morris’ defense has yet to face a strong rushing attack.
They’ll get Bijan Robinson and a good Falcons line on short rest. Atlanta ranks fourth in rush DVOA and plays a third straight home game here. Depending on how Week 5 plays out, the underdog is worth a look in this matchup.
Titans vs Browns Odds
Matchup Analysis: Tennessee ran the ball extremely well in Cleveland last season. Metrics suggest the Browns’ run defense is worse this season, as the unit entered Week 5 ranked 17th in rush defense DVOA.
However, I place no faith in the Titans defense. The unit ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, despite some allegedly easy opponents. Cleveland averaged a 41.2% pass DVOA rating from Weeks 2-4 and could exploit this secondary.
Jets vs Dolphins Odds
Matchup Analysis: I’ve came away from Miami’s last two games very impressed with their rushing attack. After three straight sub-par performances, the offense averaged a 14% rush offense DVOA rating against Minnesota and Cincinnati.
The Jets defense ranks 26th against the run, but it’s largely due to a 72.8% rating at Detroit. Still, with Miami getting a bye before this game, it could open up the Jets defense. Early interest is in the Dolphins to cover the spread.
Panthers vs Buccaneers Odds
Matchup Analysis: I prefer how this matchup shakes out for the Buccaneers. The defense is better than you’d expect as the unit ranked fifth in defensive DVOA entering Week 6.
It should give an advantage over a Panthers offense that has looked good exclusively against bad defenses. Meanwhile, Carolina remains without both starting corners against an offense that threw it well against Green Bay and Dallas.
Texans vs Giants Odds
Matchup Analysis: The Texans offense returns from a London game, which is about the only advantage for the Giants defense.
Entering Week 6, Houston ranked eighth in pass DVOA. This week, the offense gets a Giants defense ranked 22nd in pass defense.
Meanwhile, the Texans defense gets a unit ranked 28th in offense after facing a good Jaguars offense. It could result in a buy-low opportunity on the Texans defense.
Cardinals vs Broncos Odds
Matchup Analysis: I’m willing to take Denver’s offensive performance against Seattle with a grain of salt. On a short week, the unit faced (arguably) the best defense in the entire league.
This game will give a good signal on Denver’s offense when they play a bad unit. Arizona, excluding Week 6, ranked 28th in defensive DVOA. Most of the negative rating comes from a Week 3 performance at San Francisco, when they posted a 60.3% DVOA rating.
Raiders vs Rams Odds
Matchup Analysis: I struggle to see how the Raiders defense gets stops in this game. Excluding Week 6, Las Vegas ranks 26th in defensive DVOA, having faced the third-easiest set of opponents.
LA’s offense posted its best DVOA rating of the season against a comparably bad Giants defense without Puka Nacua. It could get ugly for the Raiders in this game, and their ability to cover likely comes down to the offense.
Lions vs Packers Odds
Matchup Analysis: It’s my belief this game is where Green Bay’s defense metrics start to take a step back.
Green Bay’s defense travels to face an offense coming off a bye week. Detroit’s schedule does leave something to be desired, but they get a Packers defense ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA.
The Packers sit fourth in pass defense DVOA, but it’s slightly misleading. Their three above-average rankings came against Kyler Murray, Jalon Daniels and Tyson Bagent.
Seahawks vs Chiefs Odds (SNF)
Matchup Analysis: If Rashee Rice remains out, I’m worried about the Chiefs offense in this game.
Kansas City averaged a 69.4% pass offense DVOA percentage against Indianapolis and Miami before plummeting to an 11% rating against Las Vegas. Now the unit gets an outstanding Seahawks defense ranked second in DVOA.
Seattle’s offense simultaneously leaves so much to be desired. If there’s a case for optimism, it’s that Kansas City lacks a strong pass rush and ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA.
Eagles vs Cowboys Odds (MNF)
Matchup Analysis: I doubt this game features something actionable, but I’m interested to see whether Dallas runs the ball efficiently.
Philadelphia’s defense struggled to stop a good Rams rushing attack. More perplexing is how poorly the run defense played against a bad Titans offense.
The winner of this game is likely decided by that matchup. Dallas ranks ninth in pass offense DVOA at 30.6%. However, the rating falls to 11.9% against Houston and Tampa Bay.
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