You can bet on NFL odds for the First Touchdown Scorer and Anytime Touchdown Scorer in the Bills-Patriots game this week.
Ahead of the Week 4 matchup on October 4, 2026 at Highmark Stadium, here’s a compilation of odds, trends, and data for the First TD and Anytime TD Scorer markets at BetMGM.
First TD Scorer Odds & Picks: Bills – Patriots
Here are updated First TD odds and picks (percentage chances using implied probability of the odds):
| Player | First TD Odds | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +425 | 19.0% |
| James Cook (BUF) | +475 | 17.4% |
| D.J. Moore (BUF) | +900 | 10.0% |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | +900 | 10.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +1150 | 8.0% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | +1350 | 6.9% |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | +1350 | 6.9% |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Romeo Doubs (NE) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Demario Douglas (NE) | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Josh Palmer (BUF) | +2800 | 3.4% |
Anytime TD Scorer Odds & Picks: Bills – Patriots
Here are updated Anytime TD odds and picks (percentage chances using implied probability of the odds):
| Player | Anytime TD Odds | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | -145 | 58.8% |
| James Cook (BUF) | -125 | 55.6% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +145 | 40.8% |
| D.J. Moore (BUF) | +160 | 38.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | +165 | 37.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | +185 | 35.1% |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | +250 | 28.6% |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +250 | 28.6% |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | +270 | 27.0% |
| Romeo Doubs (NE) | +270 | 27.0% |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | +270 | 27.0% |
| Demario Douglas (NE) | +360 | 21.7% |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | +425 | 19.0% |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | +525 | 16.0% |
| Josh Palmer (BUF) | +600 | 14.3% |
Will Josh Allen Score a TD This Week?
Using implied probability from his Anytime TD Odds, there’s a 58.8% chance Allen scores a touchdown this week against the Patriots.
Will James Cook Score a TD This Week?
Using implied probability from his Anytime TD Odds, there’s a 55.6% chance Cook scores a touchdown this week against the Patriots.
Will Rhamondre Stevenson Score a TD This Week?
Using implied probability from his Anytime TD Odds, there’s a 40.8% chance Stevenson scores a touchdown this week against the Bills.
Will D.J. Moore Score a TD This Week?
Using implied probability from his Anytime TD Odds, there’s a 38.5% chance Moore scores a touchdown this week against the Patriots.
Will Dalton Kincaid Score a TD This Week?
Using implied probability from his Anytime TD Odds, there’s a 37.7% chance Kincaid scores a touchdown this week against the Patriots.
First TD Scorer Trends
- Drake Maye has scored the first touchdown two times since the beginning of the 2024 season – T5th-most among NFL QB’s (including playoffs).
- James Cook has scored the first touchdown eight times since the beginning of the 2023 season – most among active Bills players (including playoffs).
- Romeo Doubs has scored the first touchdown five times since the beginning of the 2022 season – equal-most among active Patriots players (including playoffs).
- Josh Allen has scored the first touchdown 18 times in his career – most among active Bills players (including playoffs).
- Dawson Knox has scored the first touchdown 13 times in his career – 2nd-most among active Bills players (including playoffs).
- D.J. Moore has scored the first touchdown eight times in his career – T3rd-most among active Bills players (including playoffs).
- Hunter Henry has scored the first touchdown six times in his career – 2nd-most among active Patriots players (including playoffs).
- Drake Maye scored the first touchdown on an eight-yard run in the Patriots’ last outing against the Bills, a 35-31 loss.
First Touchdown Insights
- The Bills have recorded the first touchdown in one of their three games this season [(including playoffs)].
- The Patriots have recorded the first touchdown in two of their three games this season [(including playoffs)].
First TD trends
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in six of their last nine home games (including playoffs).
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in three of their last five home games against the Patriots (including playoffs).
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last 12 games (including playoffs).
Rushing/Receiving Splits
- The Bills have scored eight rushing TDs from their three games this season , while allowing two rushing TDs.
- The Bills have scored five passing TDs from their three games this season , while allowing seven passing TDs.
- The Patriots have scored one rushing TDs from their three games this season , while allowing two rushing TDs.
- The Patriots have scored one passing TDs from their three games this season , while allowing four passing TDs.
Visit the sportsbook to bet on all Bills odds and Patriots odds throughout the season.
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