Live Golf Betting: Who to Target at John Deere Classic

We’re through one round on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, so let’s take a look at some potential live outrights going into the second day of each event.

PGA Tour: John Deere Classic

There was no real discernible change in wind or other weather conditions from the morning to the afternoon on Thursday, but greens that gradually continued to firm up throughout the day led to an uneven number of early tee-timers on the leaderboard. In all, 14 of the top 16 and 19 of the top 23 on the overnight board played in the morning – as such, I’m going to focus my plays on those who will go out early on Friday, in hopes that we see a similar type of differential.

There’s at least some value in chasing those from the late wave, all of whom are well back of Doug Ghim’s leading 9-under 62. I’ll start with the guy who won last week and ranks as both the longest hitter and youngest member of the PGA Tour. Aldrich Potgieter (+4000) might someday turn himself into a consistent force, but for now we’re left to ride the ebbs and flows which come with being a 20-year-old bomber-and-gouger. (Case in point: He’s only made five cuts this year, but he’s played in a final pairing three times.) At the current price – and with any potential pressure completely off after last week’s victory – I like the idea of riding this wave while we can, especially after he opened with a 4-under 67. We’ve already seen the upside here and remember: Anytime we’re playing outrights, we’re betting on a potential ceiling.

Speaking of ceilings, Davis Thompson (+6000) showed his at this tournament last year, claiming his first career PGA Tour title. So far this season, he’s been one of my biggest long-term misses, as I thought he was primed for a breakthrough year that could’ve included another win and maybe even a Ryder Cup berth. The latter seems a pipe dream now, but he’s got the offensive firepower to win on any given week, at least against this type of field, so I’ll take a shot at a bigger number than where he started the week, despite the fact that he posted a solid 3-under 68 in the afternoon. Oh, and he’s once again staying in the same bedroom at the famed “Trophy House,” which has been the domain for each of the last three John Deere winners.

With the favorites way down the board and question marks hovering around so many of the guys near the top, I think this is a great spot to try and catch a triple-digit play who’s just waiting in the weeds. Again, I’d confine these bets to those who will tee it up early Friday and my fave here is a guy I liked pre-tournament in Bud Cauley (+12500). He was 40/1 just 24 hours ago, but has seen his odds drift after a 2-under 69 which really isn’t so terrible. What was terrible – caveat emptor – were his irons, as he ranked near the bottom of the field in approach play on Thursday, which gives me a little hesitation here, but the number is too good to ignore.

DP World Tour: BMW International Open

Thankfully, I got my usual Marco Penge bets in before this tournament started, as the man who was suspended earlier this season for betting on golf is part of a five-way tie for the lead and currently stands as the favorite at 10/1.

As I often say, weird things tend to happen on the DP World circuit, so I’ll rarely look at any short numbers with three rounds left to play. The first two I’ll start with are Marcel Schneider (+4500) and Angel Ayora (+4500), both of whom opened with scores of 2-under 70 to stand three shots off the lead. Schneider has been hot lately, with finishes of T-2 and T-7 among his last three starts, while Ayora has been top-20 in three of his last four. With a winners’ list that includes the likes of Ewen Ferguson, Thriston Lawrence and Andrea Pavan in recent years, consider yourself forewarned that only backing the big names often backfires at this event.

Following the same model, Jayden Trey Schaper (+6000) has been fantastic lately and is just one shot further back of Schneider and Ayora. He has top-10 results in each of his last three starts.

A few others: Sam Bairstow (+9000) had nothing going all day, then birdied three of his last four to get things into red figures. Davis Bryant (+9000) is trying to follow in the Brooks Koepka footsteps, as the Colorado native is playing the DP World Tour and starting to play well, opening with a 3-under 69.

And then there’s Alex Fitzpatrick (+30000) – brother of Matt – whom I really liked entering the week. He made four bogeys in the middle of his rounds, but closed with birdies on his last two holes to finish with a 73, still just a half-dozen strokes off the lead. At this price, I’ll gladly take a shot.