Best PGA Picks this Week for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Following the PGA Championship, a relatively weak field heads to TPC Craig Ranch for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Most Likely to Win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Current golf odds price Scottie Scheffler (+175) as the favorite to win. At his price, Scheffler owns a 36.4% implied chance to win.

Scheffler arrives as the defending champion at a revamped TPC Craig Ranch. Last year, he won at -31 by eight strokes over Erik van Rooyen.

Joining Scheffler atop the odds board are Si Woo Kim (+1400), Jordan Spieth (+1600) and Brooks Koepka (+2500). No other player sits inside +3000 to win in Texas.

TPC Craig Ranch Course Profile

Before we get to the predictions, a quick word on the course.

After last year’s tournament, TPC Craig Ranch underwent a $25 million renovation. The goal? Make the course a tad harder than previous iterations of this event.

It should still play fairly easy – especially with rain in the forecast to soften the course – but its key to note a few changes.

Longer rough off the fairway should bolster total driving rather than a bomb-and-gouge strategy.

Approach remains a key stat to earn scoring opportunities, but off the tee likely takes on a higher importance.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks

Jordan Smith (+8000)

Whether anyone can beat Scheffler remains a tall task. With Smith, you get a mixture of driving, spike approach potential and good finishes at relevant courses.

A weak performance at Aronimink marked only the second time Smith lost strokes off the tee since February. The irons, however, worked well (+0.72 SG: APP).

We’ve seen Smith contend in weaker fields, evidenced by a third-place finish at the Valspar. The Englishman also finished T-16th at TPC Scottsdale, a correlative course I’m considering.

Since February 1, Smith ranks fourth in SG: Ball Striking within this field. Over that span, he ranks fifth in SG: OTT and 12th in SG: APP.

The iron play has shown spike potential, too. He gained +1.01 in his second round at Aronimink while losing nearly four strokes with the putter.

At sixth in my mixed condition model, I like the price on Smith to outperform his market expectation.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+4000)

A weak opening round undid Thorbjornsen’s PGA Championship. He missed the cut at +11, largely from a 77 on Thursday.

If there’s a silver lining from Thorbjornsen’s Aronimink performance, it’s the driving. He gained +0.77 SG: OTT per round, his best performance since February at TPC Scottsdale (T-3rd).

Over the last four months, Thorbjornsen spiked to 4+ SG: TOT in 17.1% of his rounds. Only Scheffler (27.5%) posted a superior spike rate.

Thorbjornsen ranks 22nd in total driving and 14th in driving distance over his last 20 rounds. For the season, fourth in total driving, 12th in distance and 28th in accuracy.

We saw him contend at the Players before fading on Sunday. He also posted strong finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and WM Phoenix Open.

While I don’t place a ton of emphasis on course history, it’s worth noting that Thorbjornsen ranked 14th in SG: BS at this event last year.

That experience, paired with his recent metrics, leads me to Thorbjornsen at a good price.

Ryo Hisatsune (+4500)

Of the players in this week’s field that competed at Aronimink, Hisatsune offers one of the strongest profiles.

He finished second in birdie or better rate within this field at Aronimink, leading the field in scoring opportunities inside five feet.

Hisatsune ranks sixth in total driving over the last 20 rounds. He gets a slight boost here thanks to 24th in driving distance while sitting 35th in driving accuracy.

Further encouraging about Hisatsune is his ability to hit it close from distance. Over the last five years, 34% of approaches have come from beyond 200 yards at Craig Ranch.

Over the last 20 rounds, Hisatsune ranks fifth in proximity from that bucket. Over the last six months, he ranks fourth in scoring opportunities inside 15 feet from beyond 200 yards.

Last week, he spiked to at least +1.6 SG: APP in two rounds. Top-10s at TPC San Antonio, TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines also offer signs of life for Hisatsune.

At seventh in my mixed condition model, Hisatsune should outperform his market placement.

Pierceson Coody (+4000)

The hope is that Coody can rediscover some of the iron form from Harbour Town, Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale. If he can, he offers tremendous upside due to his off-the-tee play.

Perhaps the sightlines off the tee appeal to Coody at TPC Craig Ranch. In four visits to the Texas course, he’s never lost strokes off the tee while gaining at least 0.9 per round three times.

After three missed cuts here, Coody finished T-25th in his last visit.

Since his injury at the Houston Open, Coody struggled to put all phases of his game together. He spiked with his irons at Harbour Town before a strong OTT outing at Doral.

He’s cleared +2 SG:BS per round twice this season. Encouragingly, those measures came at the two aforementioned correlative setups to Craig Ranch.

Last week at Aronimink, Coody showed spike potential on bentgrass greens. In his opening round, he gained +3.9 strokes to save an otherwise unimpressive round.

Despite his recent up-and-down results, Coody ranks third in my model behind Scheffler and Brooks Koepka. That placement earns him consideration at this price.