Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The PGA Tour returns this week – a week later than usual and perhaps a few weeks earlier than it will in the future.

While the long-term status of both the Sony Open and January golf in general remain puzzle pieces yet to be revealed, we can, for now, take solace in knowing what we know: There’s a tournament being played this week, and we can bet on the damn thing.

After canceling the annual festivities at Kapalua, the PGA Tour also robbed us of some predictive trends as the new season kicks off at Waialae Country Club. It wasn’t exactly rocket science, but for years I’ve posited the theory that those who competed on Maui had a built-in advantage over everyone else who’d just landed on Oahu. 

From adjusted body clocks to four guaranteed rounds inside the ropes, the numbers bore out that playing golf the previous week was better prep than coming off a lengthy vacation.

Oh, and it didn’t hurt that those who played Kapalua were often the more accomplished players, too.

We get none of that this week, rendering the idea of recent form to an educated guess at best, but largely inconsequential.

As you’re about to read, that notion of more equal footing has me looking further down the board this week, especially for my outright selections.

Sony Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Michael Kim (+6600)

While I considered top-of-the-board outright plays such as Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun and Collin Morikawa for this selection (a few of whom I’ll write about for other finishing positions below), there were two main reasons for skipping past these guys and searching for bigger prices. 

The first is the inevitable questions after a lengthy layoff. Is Henley playing well right now? No idea. Will Morikawa be locked in after a disappointing campaign? Not a clue. Even Matsuyama’s victory at the Hero World Challenge occurred more than five weeks ago, all of which suggests some greater unknowns than we’ll see during the season. 

There aren’t many occasions when the playing field will be as theoretically leveled as this week, but I recommend chasing those bigger odds in these infrequent situations. The second is that the Sony doesn’t traditionally yield itself to top-of-the-board champions anyway. In the past half-dozen years, only Matsuyama (in 2022) was shorter than 40/1 pre-tournament, while each of the previous two winners – Nick Taylor (100/1) and the late Grayson Murray (400/1) – were in the triple-digits. 

That led me to the very intriguing Kim at nearly twice the price of guys with low win equity such as Corey Conners and Keith Mitchell, and well bigger than some who have never won, like Rico Hoey and Denny McCarthy (though I’ll admit I heavily considered each of them for this spot). 

Kim’s record of 3-for-8 made cuts and a top finish of T-20 at Waialae is depressingly underwhelming, but only if you fail to consider his entire body of work. He won the 2018 John Deere Classic, then saw his game go into a massive tailspin, only to ceremoniously return to relevance in the past year. He made 22 of 27 cuts last season, claiming a pair of top-fives and seven top-25s, finally breaking through for another victory at the Open de France on the DP World Tour in September. 

If that story arc alone wasn’t enough to make him a fan fave, consider the fact that he’s become the most personable and relatable PGA Tour pro on Twitter, often supplying fans with behind-the-scenes knowledge from tournaments. 

Playing in what will be primetime for much of the U.S., a title contention would only increase that profile and a win would be another celebrated performance for a player who’s worked so hard to even be considered for such a result.

Aggressive Pick: Takumi Kanaya (+10000)

The former No. 1-ranked amateur in the world (for a total of 55 weeks!), Kanaya really started to find his form late last year. After winning the ANA Open Golf Tournament in his native Japan, he posted three top-fives during the fall portion of the PGA Tour schedule, moving from 134th on the FedEx points list at the end of the regular season to 99th at the end of the fall, just barely securing his full playing privileges for this year. 

Hey, sometimes all it takes is a chip-and-a-chair, as they say in poker. While Kanaya’s iron play last season was very suspect, ranking 164th in SG: Approach (those three top-fives came at events without Shotlink data), he’s deadly accurate off the tee and a short-game wizard, placing 15th around the green and 29th in putting. 

The average winning score here over the past five years is 19-under and while there are plenty of different ways to get there, I don’t mind taking a chance on a guy who can fill it up on the greens, especially when there’s a massive number next to his name.

Sony Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: J.J. Spaun (+350)

I’ll get more into Henley’s place atop the odds board shortly, but I do want to dig into one aspect of it here, in relation to Spaun’s number, which is noticeably longer. Those who bet golf on a regular basis understand that the ordering of players for outright odds generally remains the same for finishing position bets, as well. 

That makes sense in most cases. If Scottie Scheffler has the greatest chance to win, he probably also has the greatest chance of finishing inside the top-10. I’d submit, however, that a player like Spaun – not to mention Matsuyama and Ben Griffin – might have greater win equity than Henley, but less top-10 probability. That suggests maybe we’re getting a slight value on Spaun as a high-end ceiling play, and I like the idea of playing him to match last year’s result, when a T-3 might’ve portended some big things, though hardly hinted at a U.S. Open title at Oakmont five months later. 

The truth is, he coulda/shoulda/woulda won this one last year, and perhaps coming back as a major champion will give him the confidence boost needed to get it done this time. I’ve always liked Spaun in West Coast-based events and, well, Hawaii is about as west as it gets. This won’t be the last time his name makes one of my previews over the first two months of this season.

Aggressive Pick: Lee Hodges (+1400)

At some point in the not-too-distant future, I might submit my personal list of the PGA Tour’s most underrated players, though I’ll readily admit that any potential “rating” is as subjective as the criticism of it. 

Anyway, last year’s runner-up Nico Echavarria is always a player I think about when such conversations are summoned, but Hodges is firmly on this list somewhere as a guy who gets very little recognition for his talents. He’s the classic keep-it-in-the-fairway-and-hit-a-lot-of-greens type of player who probably would’ve thrived more in the Tom Kite/Corey Pavin era than the bash-and-dash of today’s professional game. 

Waialae remains one of the courses, though – one of the few – where this strategy can get the job done, at least if the flatstick cooperates. It certainly did last year, when he ranked sixth in the field in putting and finished T-10. After a T-4 in his last start of 2025, I’ll buy in for another top-five this week.

Sony Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Russell Henley (+120)

There’s conservative, and then there’s run-the-ball-on-3rd-and-25 conservative. This play aligns with the latter. There won’t be many times this season when a player with a single victory over the previous three years is a tournament favorite, but Henley is a bit unique in that his consistent floor results have led to a top-five world ranking without hitting much of a ceiling. 

His performances at this event perhaps serve as an allegory to his entire career. He won here in his first start as a PGA Tour member back in 2013, flashing signs that he could someday become one of the game’s better players, but recent years have offered more of a close-but-no-cigar tone, as he’s finished 11th or better in four of the last five editions of this tournament, including a playoff loss four years ago. 

There’s nothing too sexy about playing a fave for a top-10 prop, but if the long layoff coming into this week has you more interested in building the bankroll than trying to pick an outright winner, there isn’t any shame in going with Henley here at a plus-money price.

Aggressive Pick: Denny McCarthy (+375)

I just can’t quit McCarthy. I’m an admitted sucker for those with analytics hinting they’re better than the results and McCarthy is right up there with Keith Mitchell as far as players with all the right numbers. 

Four years ago, he ranked 131st in SG: Approach, but second in putting, suggesting improved ball-striking would lead to improved results. Well, that’s exactly what’s happened. Three years ago, he moved up to 85th in approach and remained third in putting; two years ago, he was 111th in approach and fourth in putting; and last year, he made a marked improvement with the irons, ranking 62nd in approach while staying at fourth in putting. 

And yet, that combo didn’t lead to better finishes, as he posted just two top-10s – his lowest number (by far) over those past four years. Now, he did have 10 top-25s and four times came just one stroke from posting a top-10, so it’s not as if his ceiling really diminished, but it’s still a bit disappointing for a player who is at least in the argument for best without a career victory right now amongst those who have been on the PGA Tour for a little while. 

I still think that changes, and I think it changes soon. His results at this event have taken on a certain mathematical progression over those past four years – from 48th to 32nd to 24th to 16th – and while the numerology doesn’t quite lead to a win this week, the 45/1 number is very tempting and the top-10 is very much in play.

Sony Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ryan Gerard (+230)

Very few – if any – players in this field have played competitive golf more recently than Gerard, whose globetrotting pursuit of a top-50 world ranking by year’s end to earn an imminent Masters invitation feels like it could be the stuff of some Hallmark Channel rom-com. 

Like most of those movies, this one had a happy ending, as Gerard traveled to Mauritius just before Christmas and lost in a playoff, but moved to 42nd in the OWGR and punched his ticket to Augusta National. I’m a big fan of his game in general, and when it comes to this week, with the idea of form essentially removed from the equation, I have no problem taking a chance on a guy who isn’t that far removed from competing.

Aggressive Pick: Jacob Bridgeman (+450)

Perhaps the least spotlighted player to crack last year’s top-30, Bridgeman is still being priced like a player fighting to keep his job. The truth is, he made 19 of 30 cuts last season, with five top-10s and nine top-25s, which might not be eye-popping numbers, but hint at pretty solid value for a guy who’s priced at 125/1 in the outright market this week. 

While he’s 0-for-2 in reaching the weekend at Waialae, he’s one of the better rock-rollers around, finishing seventh and 21st in putting over the past two years, respectively. Though he’s a guy I’d rather target on Bermuda greens, I still don’t mind taking a shot on that putter heating up quickly in Hawaii – and if his price stays around here, he’ll be making plenty of my betting cards over the next few months.

Sony Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Keita Nakajima (market not yet available)

Like Kanaya, Nakajima is a former No. 1-ranked amateur who’s already enjoyed plenty of success in the professional ranks. The 25-year-old has four wins on the Japan Golf Tour, won two years ago on the DP World Tour and last season ended amongst the top-10 to claim full PGA Tour playing privileges for this season. 

I’m still a bit skeptical that his game will fully translate to the big ballparks of the U.S. circuit, but much like a few others on this week’s card, he can certainly post a few scores on a course like Waialae.

Aggressive Pick: Brian Campbell (market not yet available)

We live in a world with so much content that nobody remembers anything that happened more than five minutes ago, which results in ridiculous superlatives constantly being doled out to not the best ever, but simply the most recent. 

While I haven’t exhausted the research, I’m pretty confident that calling Campbell’s 2025 season one of the most unusual of all-time isn’t much of a stretch. From January through August, he played 22 events and made 10 cuts. His final tally included two top-25s, two top-10s, two top-fives and, yes, two victories. The other players to win multiple titles were Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Ben Griffin, Sepp Straka and Ryan Fox, who are ranked first, second, eighth, 12th and 40th in the world, respectively, while Campbell sits at 73rd. 

I’m not suggesting he deserves more recognition, and I’m not even suggesting that he’s more talented than he gets credit for, but I do believe that the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour knows how to get his ball around certain golf course,s and Waialae just might suit his eye.

Sony Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Spieth (+5000)

There was plenty of head-scratching after Spieth concluded last year’s regular season at 54th on the FedEx points list, then didn’t play a single fall event and dropped to 61st, keeping him out of the signature events for now. Of course, he’s no stranger to receiving some sponsor exemptions, but similarly knows how to step up when his back is against the wall. 

Ask most golf fans, and they’ll proclaim Spieth’s 2025 campaign a massive failure, but that’s not completely fair, as he did have a pair of top-fives, four top-10s and eight top-25s, but perhaps more importantly ranked 13th in SG: Total, which shows that his game is not nearly as far off as most people might believe. In his last 12 rounds at Waialae – and granted, this dates back nearly a full decade – he’s posted seven rounds of 66 or better. I’m bullish on Spieth’s over the long haul this year, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach when it comes to a four-round investment. 

He’s always a sensible choice for a single-round play, though, and his record at this event suggests that makes sense again this week.

Aggressive Pick: Ricky Castillo (+9000)

There are plenty of impressive Scheffler stats to choose from, and picking a favorite is a matter of choice, but I love this one from last year: Scottie was the Round 1 scoring average leader for the entire season… and the Round 2 scoring average leader… and the Round 3 scoring average leader… and the Round 4 scoring average leader. (You’ll never believe who led in overall scoring average.) The point is, some guys are just really good, no matter the day of the week. 

Others tend to get hot early or catch fire on the weekend. Castillo was a little of each last year. He ranked 15th in R1 scoring average and ninth in R3 scoring average, but 106th in R2 and 156th in R4. What does it all mean? Not sure I’ve got an answer, but I do know that – very much like Spieth – his good has already proven to be very good, if not completely sustainable. I like the idea of playing him for another solid start here.