- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
- Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Ahead of Sunday’s kickoff from Villa Park, I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United.
Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United – their first home loss all season – by beating Sheffield United 5-0.
As for Manchester United, they’ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Sunday’s match and my best bet.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
- Manchester United Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)
This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams.
Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%.
Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when they’re +0.5 or shorter.
On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager.
It’s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting.
Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS.
Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite.
In nine qualifying matches, they’ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches.
Add in there wasn’t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford – Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 – and I expect they’ll dominate.
Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better.
Aston Villa Form
Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W
Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L
Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D
Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W
Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
Manchester United Form
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D
Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L
Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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