Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Ahead of Sunday’s kickoff from Villa Park, I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United. 

Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United – their first home loss all season – by beating Sheffield United 5-0. 

As for Manchester United, they’ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Sunday’s match and my best bet. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

• Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
• Manchester United Moneyline: +210
• Draw Moneyline: +275
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)

This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams. 

Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%. 

Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when they’re +0.5 or shorter. 

On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager. 

It’s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS. 

Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite. 

In nine qualifying matches, they’ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches. 

Add in there wasn’t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford – Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 – and I expect they’ll dominate. 

Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better. 

Aston Villa Form 

Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W

Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L

Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D

Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W

Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L

Manchester United Form

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D

Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L

Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records