Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and West Ham United at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
  • Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.

Ahead of Sundayโ€™s kickoff from Villa Park, Iโ€™m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United.ย 

Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United โ€“ their first home loss all season โ€“ by beating Sheffield United 5-0.ย 

As for Manchester United, theyโ€™ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds for Sundayโ€™s match and my best bet.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)

This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams.ย 

Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%.ย 

Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when theyโ€™re +0.5 or shorter.ย 

On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager.ย 

Itโ€™s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting.ย 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS.ย 

Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite.ย 

In nine qualifying matches, theyโ€™ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches.ย 

Add in there wasnโ€™t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford โ€“ Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 โ€“ and I expect theyโ€™ll dominate.ย 

Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better.ย 

Aston Villa Formย 

Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W

Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L

Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D

Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W

Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L

Manchester United Form

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D

Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L

Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.