- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
- Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Ahead of Sundayโs kickoff from Villa Park, Iโm set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United.ย
Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United โ their first home loss all season โ by beating Sheffield United 5-0.ย
As for Manchester United, theyโve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds for Sundayโs match and my best bet.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
- Manchester United Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)
This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams.ย
Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%.ย
Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when theyโre +0.5 or shorter.ย
On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager.ย
Itโs also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting.ย
Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS.ย
Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite.ย
In nine qualifying matches, theyโve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches.ย
Add in there wasnโt a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford โ Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 โ and I expect theyโll dominate.ย
Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better.ย
Aston Villa Formย
Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W
Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L
Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D
Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W
Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
Manchester United Form
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D
Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L
Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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