Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and West Ham United at Villa Park in Birmingham, England, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 08, 2024, 12:32 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
  • Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.

Ahead of Sunday’s kickoff from Villa Park, I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United. 

Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United – their first home loss all season – by beating Sheffield United 5-0. 

As for Manchester United, they’ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Sunday’s match and my best bet. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)

This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams. 

Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%. 

Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when they’re +0.5 or shorter. 

On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager. 

It’s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS. 

Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite. 

In nine qualifying matches, they’ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches. 

Add in there wasn’t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford – Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 – and I expect they’ll dominate. 

Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better. 

Aston Villa Form 

Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W

Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L

Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D

Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W

Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L

Manchester United Form

Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W

Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W

Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D

Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L

Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrentfordChelseaMar. 210:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
EvertonWest Ham UnitedMar. 210:00 AMGoodison Park
FulhamBrighton & Hove AlbionMar. 210:00 AMCraven Cottage
Newcastle WolvesMar. 210:00 AMSt. James' Park
Nottingham ForestLiverpoolMar. 210:00 AMThe City Ground
TottenhamCrystal PalaceMar. 210:00 AMTottenham Hotspur Stadium
Luton TownAston VillaMar. 212:30 PMKenilworth Road
BurnleyAFC BournmouthMar. 38:00 AMTurf Moor
Manchester CityManchester UnitedMar. 310:30 AMEtihad Stadium
Sheffield UnitedArsenalMar. 43:00 PMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Liverpool FC18-6-26038
Manchester City18-5-35933
Arsenal FC18-4-45839
Aston Villa FC16-4-65221
Tottenham Hotspur14-5-64714
Manchester United14-2-10440
Brighton & Hove Albion10-9-7398
West Ham United11-6-939-6
Wolverhampton11-5-10380
Newcastle United11-4-11379
Chelsea FC10-5-10351
Fulham FC9-5-1232-6
Crystal Palace7-7-1228-13
Bournemouth7-7-1128-14
Everton8-7-1125-66 Point Deduction
Brentford7-4-1525-11
Nottingham Forest6-6-1424-14
Luton Town5-5-1520-16
Burnley FC3-4-1913-33
Sheffield United3-4-1913-44

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal15-11.5778-5.6157-6.538
Aston Villa15-10-1.5969-4.6926-6-1.500
Bournemouth15-10.6007-5.5838-5.615
Brentford9-17.3464-9.3085-8.385
Brighton & Hove Albion13-13.5007-6.5386-7.462
Burnley9-17.3462-11.1547-6.538
Chelsea12-13.4807-5.5835-8.385
Crystal Palace13-13.5006-7.4627-6.538
Everton12-14.4626-7.4626-7.462
Fulham14-11-1.5588-4-1.6546-7.462
Liverpool14-12.5388-5.6156-7.462
Luton Town16-9.64010-3.7696-6.500
Manchester City10-16.3844-9.3086-7.462
Manchester United10-16.3844-9.3086-7.462
Newcastle United11-15.4238-5.6153-10.231
Nottingham Forest12-14.4624-9.3088-5.615
Sheffield United14-12.5387-6.5387-6.538
Tottenham Hotspur15-10.6007-6.5388-4.667
West Ham United13-13.5008-5.6155-8.385
Wolverhampton Wanderers15-11.5777-6.5388-5.615

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

betmgm-nco-jamie-foxx
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.