Aston Villa vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Nicolo Zaniolo celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham and Aston Villa, at the London stadium in London, Sunday, March 17, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:26 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Villa has dropped points in two straight EPL fixtures.
  • The system that says one team is underrated in the market.

Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Villa Park, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction. 

Hosts Villa enter this match in less-than-desirable league form. Following a 3-2 road win at Luton Town, Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham and drew 1-1 with West Ham. 

As for Wolves, they’ve captured outright wins in three of their last four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this midlands clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
  • Wolves Moneyline: +375
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

Aston Villa Moneyline (-155)

History says this is a brilliant buy-low spot on Aston Villa, who have excelled under Unai Emery following a non-win. 

That rings especially true when Villa are home favorites. Since appointing Emery, Villa is 10-1 straight up as home favorites following a draw or loss. 

In six games this season, they’re 5-1 straight up. 

Even more profitable is when they’re facing a bad team in such a spot. 

Shrink the 11-game sample down to five games against teams with a winning percentage below 39%, and bettors will find Villa is 5-0 SU. 

The hosts also match another historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that closed as dogs in their last game facing a team that were favorites previously are 26-10 ATS, assuming the spread is between -1 and -2. 

Beyond those systems, Villa’s underlying metrics are far superior to Wolves, who won’t have key attackers Hee-Chan Hwang and Pedro Neto for this match. 

At home, Villa own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. As for Wolves, they’re at -0.40 xGDiff per 90 on the road, per fbref.com. 

Wolves have also run very lucky this season. They enter this match with a -2 goal differential against a -10.3 expected goal differential. 

Against a high-powered Villa offense, expect the hosts to capture all three points. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 17 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Wolves Form

March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Fulham: 2-1, W

March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.