Aston Villa vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Villa Park, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction. 

Hosts Villa enter this match in less-than-desirable league form. Following a 3-2 road win at Luton Town, Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham and drew 1-1 with West Ham. 

As for Wolves, they’ve captured outright wins in three of their last four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this midlands clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

• Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
• Wolves Moneyline: +375
• Draw Moneyline: +320
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

Aston Villa Moneyline (-155)

History says this is a brilliant buy-low spot on Aston Villa, who have excelled under Unai Emery following a non-win. 

That rings especially true when Villa are home favorites. Since appointing Emery, Villa is 10-1 straight up as home favorites following a draw or loss. 

In six games this season, they’re 5-1 straight up. 

Even more profitable is when they’re facing a bad team in such a spot. 

Shrink the 11-game sample down to five games against teams with a winning percentage below 39%, and bettors will find Villa is 5-0 SU. 

The hosts also match another historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that closed as dogs in their last game facing a team that were favorites previously are 26-10 ATS, assuming the spread is between -1 and -2. 

Beyond those systems, Villa’s underlying metrics are far superior to Wolves, who won’t have key attackers Hee-Chan Hwang and Pedro Neto for this match. 

At home, Villa own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. As for Wolves, they’re at -0.40 xGDiff per 90 on the road, per fbref.com. 

Wolves have also run very lucky this season. They enter this match with a -2 goal differential against a -10.3 expected goal differential. 

Against a high-powered Villa offense, expect the hosts to capture all three points. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 17 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Wolves Form

March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Fulham: 2-1, W

March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

EPL Standings

EPL ATS Records