Aston Villa vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Aston Villa's Nicolo Zaniolo celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham and Aston Villa, at the London stadium in London, Sunday, March 17, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:26 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Villa has dropped points in two straight EPL fixtures.
  • The system that says one team is underrated in the market.

Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Villa Park, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction. 

Hosts Villa enter this match in less-than-desirable league form. Following a 3-2 road win at Luton Town, Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham and drew 1-1 with West Ham. 

As for Wolves, they’ve captured outright wins in three of their last four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this midlands clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
  • Wolves Moneyline: +375
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

Aston Villa Moneyline (-155)

History says this is a brilliant buy-low spot on Aston Villa, who have excelled under Unai Emery following a non-win. 

That rings especially true when Villa are home favorites. Since appointing Emery, Villa is 10-1 straight up as home favorites following a draw or loss. 

In six games this season, they’re 5-1 straight up. 

Even more profitable is when they’re facing a bad team in such a spot. 

Shrink the 11-game sample down to five games against teams with a winning percentage below 39%, and bettors will find Villa is 5-0 SU. 

The hosts also match another historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that closed as dogs in their last game facing a team that were favorites previously are 26-10 ATS, assuming the spread is between -1 and -2. 

Beyond those systems, Villa’s underlying metrics are far superior to Wolves, who won’t have key attackers Hee-Chan Hwang and Pedro Neto for this match. 

At home, Villa own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. As for Wolves, they’re at -0.40 xGDiff per 90 on the road, per fbref.com. 

Wolves have also run very lucky this season. They enter this match with a -2 goal differential against a -10.3 expected goal differential. 

Against a high-powered Villa offense, expect the hosts to capture all three points. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 17 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Wolves Form

March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Fulham: 2-1, W

March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.