Aston Villa vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Nicolo Zaniolo celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham and Aston Villa, at the London stadium in London, Sunday, March 17, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:26 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Villa has dropped points in two straight EPL fixtures.
  • The system that says one team is underrated in the market.

Before Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture at Villa Park, I’m set to offer an Aston Villa vs. Wolves prediction. 

Hosts Villa enter this match in less-than-desirable league form. Following a 3-2 road win at Luton Town, Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham and drew 1-1 with West Ham. 

As for Wolves, they’ve captured outright wins in three of their last four games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for this midlands clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
  • Wolves Moneyline: +375
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Wolves

Aston Villa Moneyline (-155)

History says this is a brilliant buy-low spot on Aston Villa, who have excelled under Unai Emery following a non-win. 

That rings especially true when Villa are home favorites. Since appointing Emery, Villa is 10-1 straight up as home favorites following a draw or loss. 

In six games this season, they’re 5-1 straight up. 

Even more profitable is when they’re facing a bad team in such a spot. 

Shrink the 11-game sample down to five games against teams with a winning percentage below 39%, and bettors will find Villa is 5-0 SU. 

The hosts also match another historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2017-18, home favorites that closed as dogs in their last game facing a team that were favorites previously are 26-10 ATS, assuming the spread is between -1 and -2. 

Beyond those systems, Villa’s underlying metrics are far superior to Wolves, who won’t have key attackers Hee-Chan Hwang and Pedro Neto for this match. 

At home, Villa own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. As for Wolves, they’re at -0.40 xGDiff per 90 on the road, per 

Wolves have also run very lucky this season. They enter this match with a -2 goal differential against a -10.3 expected goal differential. 

Against a high-powered Villa offense, expect the hosts to capture all three points. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 17 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Wolves Form

March 16 vs. Coventry City: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

March 9 vs. Fulham: 2-1, W

March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.