- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Forest has won four of its last five EPL Saturday matches as an underdog.
- My Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest prediction focuses on the over/under.
Nottingham Forest look to continue their winning ways with a trip to Bournemouth on Saturday.
Hosts Bournemouth captured a 4-1 win over Newcastle on Saturday. That extended the Cherries’ unbeaten run to 10 matches and leaves them seventh in the table.
Forest earned a 3-2 win over Southampton after leading 3-0 at halftime. It’s the eighth match unbeaten for Forest (W7-D1), who sit third in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest Odds, Premier League
Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected goals record and Forest’s weakening defense, my Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-130).
There’s so much expected regression for Bournemouth, both offensively and defensively.
From an expected goals standpoint, Bournemouth matches are combining to average 3.19 expected goals per match. Yet, their matches are actually averaging 2.82.
It’s even more drastic by post-shot expected goals. Through 22 games, Bournemouth matches have seen 62 goals off 76.5 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
As it stands, Bournemouth have scored six goals under post-shot expected, while keeping out 8.7 goals above post-shot expected. Both figures lead the Premier League.
When these sides met on Matchday 1, the fixture finished 1-1. However, the teams combined for 2.52 xG and 3.05 post-shot xG.
There’s also the matter that Forest is beginning to fall off defensively. Over their last three matches, they’ve allowed 4.7 post-shot xG against only three goals.
That should allow chances for Bournemouth, who rate out as one of the most overrated defenses in the league.
Only seven sides rate out worse than Bournemouth in post-shot xGA. Through 22 matches, they’ve kept only five clean sheets.
This game also matches a historically profitable system suggesting it clears 2.5 goals.
Since last season, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 42-10 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The visitor’s previous game margin is +0 or +1
- The away team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.3 and 1.9
When those road teams average between 1.5 and 1.9 – Forest sits at 1.5 – the matches are 31-4 to the over, including 2-0 when Bournemouth is hosting.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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