Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Chelsea will try for two straight wins in all competitions on Monday against Nottingham Forest.

The Blues won an FA Cup semifinal on Sunday. Now, caretaker manager Calum McFarlane will try to lead the Blues to their first league win since March 4.

Nottingham Forest continued its strong run of form last Friday with a 5-0 win at Sunderland. The win gives Forest two straight victories along with a six-match unbeaten streak.

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest prediction.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Premier League Odds

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Forest’s extreme attacking luck during its unbeaten run and fraudulent defensive record, my Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-140).

This prediction is more against Forest than a conviction on Chelsea. Recently, Forest has run extremely lucky against its underlying metrics, especially in attack.

During their six-match unbeaten run, Forest posted a +11 goal differential vs. a -0.5 expected goal differential. Only twice in the last six have Forest won the expected goals battle.

In attack, the Tricky Trees scored 15 times off just over seven xG. Plus, the defense has played five of the last six against teams 14th or worse in expected goals for the season.

Forest began this streak with a 2-2 draw at Manchester City. However, they posted a -1.5 expected goal differential for the match while allowing 2.7 expected goals.

For the season, Forest has surrendered 45 goals against 55.2 expected, per Understat. Now, they’re facing a Chelsea side that ranks second in expected goals for the year.

More encouraging for Chelsea is that they rate out a positive offensive regression candidate. The Blues have underperformed their xG tally by 14.3 goals this year.

Only Crystal Palace has underperformed its xG output by a higher margin.

Earlier this year, Chelsea’s attack dominated Forest. As a +115 road favorite, Chelsea won 3-0 with a 2.1-0.6 post-shot xG edge.

Additionally, Chelsea will enter Monday’s match owning a massive rest edge. The Blues last played on Sunday, leaving eight days to prepare.

Meanwhile, Forest faces a trip to Aston Villa for a Thursday Europa League tie before heading to London on Monday.

Those factors lead me to believe both sides experience directional regression. Accordingly, I predict Chelsea wins as home favorites.