- Everton is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City has won each of its last eight EPL away matches against Everton.
- My Everton vs Man City prediction is the Man City 1H Moneyline (-115).
Manchester City closes out Premier League Matchday 35 with a trip to face Everton.
City’s last Premier League action came on April 22, a 1-0 win over Burnley. Entering Monday’s match, Pep Guardiola’s side has captured maximum points in eight of the last 11.
Everton fell 2-1 at West Ham United on Matchday 34, their second consecutive defeat. As it stands, David Moyes’ side sits 11th in the Premier League table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs Man City prediction.
Everton vs Man City: Premier League Odds
Man City vs Everton: Prediction
Based on Everton’s troubling defensive record against good attacks and City’s early dominance, my Everton vs Man City prediction is the Manchester City 1H Moneyline (-115).
City took a halftime advantage 21 times in 33 matches this year. While most of that success has come at home, they’ve still gained an edge nine times in 17 road matches.
It’s somewhat concerning that the reverse fixture against Everton qualified as one of the failures. However, City gets extended rest to prepare for Monday’s match against a reeling defense.
Everton started well against West Ham. However, it’s to be expected against one of the league’s worst attacks.
Before that fixture, Everton played Liverpool as home underdogs. The Toffees found themselves behind inside 30 minutes while allowing 1.16 post-shot expected goals in the first half.
The trend generally reflects Everton’s first-half struggles this season.
Irrespective of market status, Everton possesses a -4.25 first-half expected goal differential this year, per Understat.
Most of that performance can be attributed to a weak attack. Of Everton’s 47.1 xG this season, almost 60% came after halftime.
Now you remove talisman Beto from the lineup via injury. This year, Beto leads all Everton players in goals scored per 90 minutes.
Plus, Everton closed north of +200 four times at home this year. They’ve scored a first-half goal only once in those four fixtures.
If that record continues, the first-half moneyline (essentially) comes down to whether Man City scores a goal.
Given oddsmakers price that outcome at -190, I like City to win the first half at a shorter price (-115).
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