Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Fulham tries for a third straight EPL result against Liverpool as home dogs on Sunday. 

Marco Silva’s side has seen a recent uptick in form. Six of their eight league wins on the season have come since November 1, including a recent run of three straight. 

Liverpool has risen to fourth in the league table after strong results of late. Excluding Thursday’s match against Leeds United, Liverpool won three straight fixtures. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs Liverpool prediction. 

Fulham vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds

Liverpool vs Fulham: Prediction

Based on Liverpool’s misleading defensive record and Fulham’s recent attacking success as a home dog, my Fulham vs Liverpool prediction is Fulham Over 1.5 Goals (+170). 

At first glance, defensive metrics suggest Liverpool is good. Excluding Thursday’s match against Leeds, Arne Slot’s side has allowed 1.2 xG per 90 and 1.08 non-penalty xG. 

However, Liverpool’s defense has benefited strongly from opponents’ bad luck. Through 18 matches, referees have shown Liverpool opponents five red cards. 

Despite that fact, Liverpool have kept a clean sheet only five times. Away from home, their only clean sheets came against West Ham and Burnley, two of the five worst attacks by xG. 

Now they get a Fulham side which has failed to score only once at home. That came as home underdogs to Arsenal, the league’s best defense by all metrics. 

But bettors have simultaneously seen Fulham thrive as a home dog. Against Manchester City, Silva’s side scored four goals, albeit off 1.9 post-shot xG and one big chance. 

If there’s a slight concern, it’s that both Alex Iwobi and Samuel Chukweze are off at AFCON. 

However, Fulham managed three tallies off 1.34 post-shot xG, with an inferior attack as home dogs to Liverpool last April. 

We’ve also seen worse attacks put up strong attacking metrics on Liverpool when the Reds don’t benefit from a red card. 

Nottingham Forest scored three goals at Anfield while Leeds United notched three goals as home dogs. 

Excluding Matchday 19, Fulham sits two spots behind Leeds in post-shot xG and one spot ahead of Forest. 

That renders this price too high in my estimation. Add that both teams are operating on short rest, and I predict the Fulham attack performs well as a home dog.