Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction.
Hull City vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds
Aston Villa vs Hull City Prediction
Based on Hull City’s potential negative regression in attack and Aston Villa’s weak attacking metrics since last year, my Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (-108).
Villa looked good in defense on Monday as lofty home underdogs to current champions Arsenal. It followed a brutal match at Brighton where Unai Emery’s side fell behind 4-0 inside 35 minutes.
Arsenal barely cleared one expected goal as a -200 road favorite at Villa. By post-shot xG, Arsenal reached only 0.8 against Aston Villa.
It’s a slight concern Villa will go from operating as an underdog in each of their first two to a favorite on Matchday 3. But they’re getting a Hull side that has run lucky in attack so far.
The EPL newcomers scored three goals through two matches, including twice against Manchester United. However, it came against two xG & post-shot xG.
On Matchday 2 against Coventry City, Hull scored only once off 0.7 xG and 0.3 post-shot xG.
Based on Villa’s performance against Arsenal, a similar attacking performance should be expected.
Most concerning for this match is how the Villa attack does enough as favorites to justify the price of over 2.5 goals.
Villa experienced loads of turnover during the transfer window. Their two best attackers from last season – Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers – both left the team.
Last year, Watkins finished as the only Villa player to clear 10 expected goals for the season. It came on a team that ranked 12th in expected goals.
The Villa attack has yet to put a shot on target through two matches. A red card at Brighton and facing the league’s best defense from last year will have contributed to that record.
Good pieces arrived to replace the talent lost, but it’s my belief it will take time for Villa’s attack to reach its full potential. Given those factors, I predict a low-scoring fixture on Saturday.
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