- Liverpool is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Leeds.
- Liverpool is 10-1-0 (W-D-L) in matches where they take a lead this season.
- My Liverpool vs Leeds prediction is Liverpool to cover the goal line (-1.5, +120).
To begin the 2026 calendar year, Liverpool starts with a home fixture against Leeds United.Â
Thursday’s fixture marks the second straight home match for Liverpool. It’s also the second meeting in short order against Leeds United, which drew Liverpool 3-3 at home.Â
For the title holders, home fixtures have provided mixed results. Arne Slot’s side is 6-1-2 (W-D-L) at Anfield, including a 2-1 home win against Wolves on Saturday.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs Leeds prediction.Â
Liverpool vs Leeds: Premier League Odds
Leeds vs Liverpool: Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s massive metrics edge in the reverse fixture and their success after taking leads, my Liverpool vs Leeds prediction is Liverpool’s Spread (-1.5, +120).Â
The 3-3 scoreline at Elland Road is a bit misleading. Liverpool took a 2-0 advantage, and then conceded a late goal leading 3-2 to drop two points.Â
But Liverpool completely dominated the match. Post-shot xG finished 3.7-2.1 for Liverpool, which also posted a 4-2 big scoring chances edge.Â
Leeds also scored one of its three goals via a penalty kick and fell 1.9-0.7 on expected goals, per fotmob.com.Â
That draw remains Liverpool’s only loss when taking a lead this season. Prior to that match, Liverpool won all nine matches from leading positions.Â
This season, Leeds’ defense takes a massive step back playing away from home. Daniel Farke’s defense has surrendered the eighth-fewest xG at home, but the fifth-most on the road.Â
Only once all season has Leeds scored the first goal away from home. That came against Nottingham Forest, the fourth-worst defense by xG and sixth-worst by psxG.Â
For all of Liverpool’s issues this season, the defense has posted decent metrics. Excluding Saturday’s match against Wolves, Liverpool ranked fourth in xGA and eighth in psxGA.Â
Thursday’s match also provides another advantage for Liverpool. The Reds play two straight games at home while Leeds travels on short rest after a road match against Sunderland.Â
That, paired with the fact three of Liverpool’s six home wins have come by multiple goals, lead me to predict a win and cover for the hosts.Â
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