Liverpool vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 2:53 PM
  • Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
  • Tottenham won 2-1 in the reverse fixture but required red cards from Liverpool.
  • Is the market overrating Liverpool at home?

Before Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture, bettors can find my Liverpool vs. Tottenham prediction below. 

Both sides enter Sunday’s meeting having dropped points in their last fixture. Spurs lost 2-0 at Chelsea in the midweek, while Liverpool drew 2-2 at West Ham last weekend. 

When these sides last met earlier this season, Tottenham earned a 2-1 home win. However, both goals came with Tottenham playing up a man. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Tottenham

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -210
  • Tottenham Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-160/+115)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Tottenham

Tottenham Spread (+1.5, -145)

I don’t love the spot for Tottenham, who is playing their second consecutive road match on short rest. 

However, history suggests Tottenham are live to cover the spread at Anfield. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs at +1.5 or +2 with juice between +150 and -149 are 152-95-17 ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The team was an underdog in their previous game
  • The opponent was a favorite in their previous game

Even when those teams are playing on between two and four days of rest, they’re still 42-27-3 ATS, including 10-5 ATS since last season. 

There’s another system suggesting a bet on Tottenham. 

Over the same time period, underdogs that closed a dog in their previous game are 191-112-20 ATS (63%), assuming two factors:

  • The spread is +1.5, +2, +2.5 or +3
  • The opponent’s previous game margin is between +0 and +5

Shrink the sample down to games in which the dog won the previous head-to-head meeting and bettors will find those dogs are 24-9-1 ATS. 

Even if you ignore those trends, Tottenham has proved they can compete with the league’s best this season. 

Although they required some help from Liverpool, it’s worth noting Spurs have stayed within this number in all four games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. 

Plus, not since January 2021 have Liverpool covered this number against Tottenham, who just bossed Arsenal at home in terms of the underlying metrics. 

Sample Tottenham’s two road matches against Arsenal and Manchester City, bettors will find they’ve posted a -0.15 post-shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Spurs have also earned points in both of those matches, so I’ll be surprised if they get blown out on Sunday at Anfield. 

As a result, I’ll buy low on Spurs following a dreadful performance at Chelsea and take them to do no worse than a cover. 

Liverpool Form 

April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L

Tottenham Form

May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L

April 13 at Newcastle: 0-4, L

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.