- Man United is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- 'First Half Over 0.5 Goals' has hit in each of Tottenham's last 22 EPL day matches.
- My Man United vs Tottenham prediction is the Manchester United 1H Moneyline (+110).
Matchday 25 of the EPL season kicks off from Old Trafford with Manchester United against Tottenham.Â
United held on for a third straight win under Michael Carrick last week. As home favorites against Fulham, United won 3-2. They’ve now scored at least twice in four straight.Â
Tottenham stormed back from a 2-0 deficit to draw Man City 2-2 on Matchday 24. Earlier this year, Tottenham also came from behind to produce the same scoreline against United.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man United vs Tottenham prediction.Â
Man United vs Tottenham: Premier League Odds
Tottenham vs Man United: Prediction
Based on Manchester United’s attacking strength in the opening half and first-half success at home, my Man United vs Tottenham prediction is the Man United 1H Moneyline (+110).Â
Only twice all year has United trailed at halftime. The first came on Matchday 1 as home underdogs to Arsenal, with the second coming at home against Everton.Â
Both of those attacks offer a greater threat than Tottenham. Entering Matchday 25, only five teams have created fewer expected goals than Spurs.Â
Metrics-wise, United have dominated teams early. Per understat.com, the Red Devils own a +7.6 xGDiff in the first half.Â
Conversely, Tottenham holds a -3 expected goal differential in the first 45 minutes.Â
The crux of this handicap comes down to how quickly Tottenham responds at a deficit. Here’s how both teams have performed at a neutral game state this year:
- Manchester United: +9.1 xGDiff, 1.94 xGF per 90 minutes
- Tottenham: -2.9 xGDiff, 1.4 xGF per 90
A core issue? Tottenham has struggled to limit chances at a negative game state.Â
Thomas Frank’s side has allowed 1.8 xG per 90 at a -1 state, while United have created 1.9 xG at a +1 state.Â
When these teams played earlier this year, United dominated the early goings. By post-shot expected goals, United finished with a +0.44 psxGDiff at Tottenham.Â
Given those stats, I predict United takes a halftime lead with the added benefit of home-field advantage.Â
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