Manchester United vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 14, 2024, 2:47 PM
  • Manchester United is a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle United.
  • Newcastle won 1-0 at home earlier this season and is unbeaten in three matches.
  • Why bettors should look at the totals for Wednesday’s match.

Newcastle United will travel to Old Trafford on Wednesday to face Manchester United as they attempt to secure a top-six spot this season. 

The Magpies are unbeaten in their last three contests and defeated Manchester United 1-0 at home. 

Manchester United enter this match winless in three, including a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Sunday. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s meeting. 

EPL Odds – Manchester United vs. Newcastle United

  • Manchester United Moneyline: +165
  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +130
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)

Premier League Prediction – Manchester United vs. Newcastle United

Newcastle United Team Total Over 1.5 (-160) | Newcastle United Draw, No Bet (-135) | Total Over 3.5 (-130) – Wait for Lineups

Don’t let the 1-0 scoreline in the reverse fixture fool you — Newcastle should have scored multiple goals. 

Albeit at home, the Magpies created 2.5 expected goals and four big scoring chances, per 

Plus, in an earlier League Cup meeting this season at Old Trafford, Newcastle scored three goals off 0.98 expected and 2.02 post-shot expected goals. 

That marks the second successful clearance of their team total in the last three meetings against United. 

Plus, manager Eddie Howe’s side has dominated bad defenses lately. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, Newcastle has played seven matches against sides, allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’ve cleared this number in six of those contests while creating 2.37 npxG per 90 minutes, per 

Additionally, Newcastle has rarely dropped all three points against bad defenses this season. 

Sample 14 games against sides fitting the aforementioned defensive threshold, and bettors will find they’ve lost only once — December 10 at Tottenham. 

Conversely, Manchester United hasn’t done well against teams with good offenses. 

Sample 11 games against sides creating more than 1.7 npxG per 90 minutes and bettors will find United is 1-3-7 (W-D-L) with seven of 11 clearing 1.5 goals. 

As for the game total, this comes down to whether Bruno Fernandes plays for Manchester United. 

If he does, I can see United exploiting a Newcastle defense that has kept only two road clean sheets this season. 

This game is also a system match.

Since 2012-13, overs in matches featuring a home underdog that saw their most recent match finish under the total by at least two goals are 50-25-1 to the over, assuming two factors:

  • The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.4 and 4
  • The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5 

Wait for lineups before playing it, but I like goals if United get Fernandes back. 

Manchester United Form 

May 12 vs. Arsenal: 0-1, L

May 6 at Crystal Palace: 0-4, L

April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup)

Newcastle United Form

May 11 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D

May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W

April 27 vs. Sheffield United: 5-1, W

April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.