- Manchester United is a +0.5-goal underdog against Newcastle United.
- Newcastle won 1-0 at home earlier this season and is unbeaten in three matches.
- Why bettors should look at the totals for Wednesday’s match.
Newcastle United will travel to Old Trafford on Wednesday to face Manchester United as they attempt to secure a top-six spot this season.
The Magpies are unbeaten in their last three contests and defeated Manchester United 1-0 at home.
Manchester United enter this match winless in three, including a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s meeting.
EPL Odds – Manchester United vs. Newcastle United
- Manchester United Moneyline: +165
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +130
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)
Premier League Prediction – Manchester United vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle United Team Total Over 1.5 (-160) | Newcastle United Draw, No Bet (-135) | Total Over 3.5 (-130) – Wait for Lineups
Don’t let the 1-0 scoreline in the reverse fixture fool you — Newcastle should have scored multiple goals.
Albeit at home, the Magpies created 2.5 expected goals and four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Plus, in an earlier League Cup meeting this season at Old Trafford, Newcastle scored three goals off 0.98 expected and 2.02 post-shot expected goals.
That marks the second successful clearance of their team total in the last three meetings against United.
Plus, manager Eddie Howe’s side has dominated bad defenses lately.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, Newcastle has played seven matches against sides, allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’ve cleared this number in six of those contests while creating 2.37 npxG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Additionally, Newcastle has rarely dropped all three points against bad defenses this season.
Sample 14 games against sides fitting the aforementioned defensive threshold, and bettors will find they’ve lost only once — December 10 at Tottenham.
Conversely, Manchester United hasn’t done well against teams with good offenses.
Sample 11 games against sides creating more than 1.7 npxG per 90 minutes and bettors will find United is 1-3-7 (W-D-L) with seven of 11 clearing 1.5 goals.
As for the game total, this comes down to whether Bruno Fernandes plays for Manchester United.
If he does, I can see United exploiting a Newcastle defense that has kept only two road clean sheets this season.
This game is also a system match.
Since 2012-13, overs in matches featuring a home underdog that saw their most recent match finish under the total by at least two goals are 50-25-1 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.4 and 4
- The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5
Wait for lineups before playing it, but I like goals if United get Fernandes back.
Manchester United Form
May 12 vs. Arsenal: 0-1, L
May 6 at Crystal Palace: 0-4, L
April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup)
Newcastle United Form
May 11 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W
April 27 vs. Sheffield United: 5-1, W
April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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