Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
  • Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Newcastle lost 3-1 to Brighton earlier this season, but have won 12 of 18 at home.
  • This system suggests one side is undervalued in the market on Saturday.

For Newcastle Unitedโ€™s final home game of the 2023-24 campaign, theyโ€™ll welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to St. Jamesโ€™ Park.ย 

Both teams earned convincing wins in their previous games. Newcastle thrashed relegation-threatened Burnley 4-1, their fourth win in their last five games.ย 

As for Brighton, they ended a six-match winless run by defeating Aston Villa 1-0 at home.ย 

The last time these sides played, Brighton bossed the match and won 3-1. Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for the second meeting of the season.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. Brighton

  • Newcastle Moneyline: -185
  • Brighton Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +375
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-125/-110)

Premier League Prediction – Newcastle vs. Brighton

Two-Leg ML Parlay: Newcastle United & Arsenal (+115)

Newcastle United is the crux of this play, but -185 is a touch rich for my liking.ย 

As a result, Iโ€™ll use Arsenal to drive down the price. Two systems suggest Arsenal will win on Sunday, which you can find in my Arsenal vs. Manchester United Prediction.ย 

Essentially, Iโ€™m not going to let one performance from Brighton sway my thinking theyโ€™re on cruise control through the end of the season.ย 

I attribute their win against Villa to the fact Brighton received a massive rest edge over Villa, who played a Thursday home match before their road fixture at Brighton last Sunday.ย 

They wonโ€™t have a rest edge over Newcastle, who sit fourth in home xGDiff per 90 minutes this season and have dropped points at home only six times.ย 

Theyโ€™ve also played significantly better recently. Sample their last five fixtures at St. Jamesโ€™ Park and bettors will find theyโ€™re 4-1-0 (W-D-L) and have won the expected goals battle in all five.ย 

Conversely, Brighton have only one road win since the calendar flipped to 2024 and have only four results in their last nine away from the South coast.ย 

Itโ€™s also not as if Brighton has faced difficult opposition recently. In their last five road matches, theyโ€™ve played only one top-six side and two top-half teams.ย 

Yet, theyโ€™ve posted a -0.72 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.ย 

History also suggests Brighton are a good fade candidate on Saturday.ย 

Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites sitting between -106 and -215 on the three-way moneyline facing a team off a win as favorites are 132-62 SU.ย 

This season, those teams are a whopping 21-4 SU.ย 

As a result, Iโ€™ll bet a Newcastle side thatโ€™s getting healthy at the right time to avenge their defeat earlier this season and win their final home match.ย 

Newcastle Formย 

May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W

April 27 at Sheffield United: 5-1, W

April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

Brighton Form

May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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