Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

min read
Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:04 PM
  • Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Newcastle lost 3-1 to Brighton earlier this season, but have won 12 of 18 at home.
  • This system suggests one side is undervalued in the market on Saturday.

For Newcastle United’s final home game of the 2023-24 campaign, they’ll welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to St. James’ Park. 

Both teams earned convincing wins in their previous games. Newcastle thrashed relegation-threatened Burnley 4-1, their fourth win in their last five games. 

As for Brighton, they ended a six-match winless run by defeating Aston Villa 1-0 at home. 

The last time these sides played, Brighton bossed the match and won 3-1. Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for the second meeting of the season. 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. Brighton

  • Newcastle Moneyline: -185
  • Brighton Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +375
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-125/-110)

Premier League Prediction – Newcastle vs. Brighton

Two-Leg ML Parlay: Newcastle United & Arsenal (+115)

Newcastle United is the crux of this play, but -185 is a touch rich for my liking. 

As a result, I’ll use Arsenal to drive down the price. Two systems suggest Arsenal will win on Sunday, which you can find in my Arsenal vs. Manchester United Prediction

Essentially, I’m not going to let one performance from Brighton sway my thinking they’re on cruise control through the end of the season. 

I attribute their win against Villa to the fact Brighton received a massive rest edge over Villa, who played a Thursday home match before their road fixture at Brighton last Sunday. 

They won’t have a rest edge over Newcastle, who sit fourth in home xGDiff per 90 minutes this season and have dropped points at home only six times. 

They’ve also played significantly better recently. Sample their last five fixtures at St. James’ Park and bettors will find they’re 4-1-0 (W-D-L) and have won the expected goals battle in all five. 

Conversely, Brighton have only one road win since the calendar flipped to 2024 and have only four results in their last nine away from the South coast. 

It’s also not as if Brighton has faced difficult opposition recently. In their last five road matches, they’ve played only one top-six side and two top-half teams. 

Yet, they’ve posted a -0.72 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

History also suggests Brighton are a good fade candidate on Saturday. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites sitting between -106 and -215 on the three-way moneyline facing a team off a win as favorites are 132-62 SU. 

This season, those teams are a whopping 21-4 SU. 

As a result, I’ll bet a Newcastle side that’s getting healthy at the right time to avenge their defeat earlier this season and win their final home match. 

Newcastle Form 

May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W

April 27 at Sheffield United: 5-1, W

April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

Brighton Form

May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.