- Newcastle is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Leeds.
- Leeds has taken points in three straight EPL matches against Newcastle.
- My Newcastle vs Leeds prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-135).
For its second match of a back-to-back home spot, Newcastle United hosts Leeds United.
At the midway point of the season, Newcastle has struggled to find consistent form. Eddie Howe’s side, prior to Sunday’s meeting with Crystal Palace, sits 13th in the table.
Leeds, meanwhile, accumulated 21 points through its first 19 matches. However, only six of those points came away from home with one league win through 10 road matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Leeds prediction.
Newcastle vs Leeds: Premier League Odds
Leeds vs Newcastle: Prediction
Based on the personnel changes since the first meeting and Leeds’ troubling defensive record on the road, my Newcastle vs Leeds prediction is Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-135).
Newcastle accumulated only 0.46 expected goals and 0.14 post-shot xG in the first meeting. However, Howe deployed a back five on short rest without both striker signings available.
Generally speaking, the Newcastle attack has performed markedly better at home. Away from home, the Magpies have generated under one expected goal per 90 minutes.
In its first nine matches at St. James’ Park, the attack created 16.7 expected goals. That sample includes six straight clearances of 1.75 xG, again excluding its Matchday 20 fixture.
No team has kept Newcastle scoreless at home with Howe’s attack clearing 1.5 goals in all but two matches.
While Leeds kept a clean sheet at Liverpool on Matchday 19, the result proved very fluky. Liverpool failed to score off 2.1 expected goals and two big scoring chances against Leeds.
That defensive output marks the fourth time in Leeds’ last six road matches that they surrendered over two expected goals. For the season, Leeds ranks 18th in road expected goals allowed.
Additionally, should Newcastle find an early goal, it creates a massive game state edge for the hosts.
At a +1 game state, Newcastle is creating two xG per 90. Leeds, at a -1 game state, has surrendered 1.66 xG per 90 minutes, per understat.com.
Pair that advantage with Newcastle’s attacking success at home, and I predict the hosts score at least twice against a bad road defense.
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