- Southampton is predicted to be a +1.5-goal home underdog against Aston Villa.
- The 'Goal in Both Halves' market has hit in each of Southampton's last 13 EPL matches.
- My Southampton vs. Aston Villa prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
After suffering relegation and sacking their manager, Southampton returns home for a meeting against Aston Villa.
A 3-1 loss at Tottenham confirmed the drop for Southampton, which sacked their second manager of the year after the result. Not since February 1 has Southampton won a match.
Aston Villa held on for a 2-1 win against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 31, their third straight league win. As it stands, Villa sit seventh in the table, two points outside a top-four spot.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Southampton vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds
- Southampton Moneyline: +425
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -175
- Draw Moneyline: +333
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-145), “No” (+105)
Aston Villa vs Southampton: Prediction
Based on how eventful Southampton matches run at home and Villa’s offensive record against promoted teams, my Aston Villa vs. Southampton prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-165).
While it’s a lot of juice to lay, 10 of Southampton’s 15 home matches have cleared 2.5 goals this season.
Additionally, there’s a case more goals could arrive on Saturday. Through Southampton’s 15 home matches, teams have combined for 51 goals against 52.6 xG.
The latter figure implies an average of 3.5 combined xG per 90. As a result, it might be wise to consider Over 3.5 Goals (+145). This season, eight of 15 Saints home matches cleared 3.5.
Villa face a tricky spot in this match as they travel to Paris on Wednesday for a Champions League match. Then, they turn around and face Southampton on Saturday.
Southampton’s defense is bad enough that goals should flow for Aston Villa. This season, Villa created 1.9 post-shot xG per 90 against promoted sides.
The issue? Villa kept only one clean sheet in those five games. They’ve also struggled on short rest against even the worst EPL attacks.
Villa faced three games against teams 16th or worse in post-shot xG immediately following a Champions League match. All three teams scored while creating 1.4 post-shot xG per 90.
Southampton could receive a new manager bounce on Saturday and force players forward at home. Plus, the Saints scored at least once in all but two of their last 11 league matches.
This game also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012, matches with a total set at 2.5 goals are 100-55 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.4 and 1.8
When those matches feature a road favorite off a result: 32-15 to the over, including 3-0 when Southampton is the home team.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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