Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction.
Sunderland vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds
Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s misleading defensive record against Chelsea and struggles as a big road favorite, my Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
Arsenal conceded for the first time inside 120 seconds against Chelsea. However, the defense allowed an unexpected goal as their only tally.
Morgan Rogers opened the scoring against the current holders. He scored on a shot worth only 0.02 expected goals and 0.11 post-shot xG, per FotMob.
Chelsea, which finished third in expected goals last season, created only 0.4 xG & post-shot xG in the fixture. By contrast, Sunderland offers Arsenal a significantly easier test.
Last year’s newcomers ranked 18th in expected goals (43.1). While the attack scored twice as home dogs against Arsenal, they ran extremely lucky in the process.
The Black Cats scored twice off 0.8 post-shot xG and 1.2 expected goals. Weak attacking metrics plagued Regis Le Bris’ side through three matches.
Only once in three matches has Sunderland cleared one post-shot xG. That success came against a leaky Fulham defense as a short home favorite.
As underdogs at Brentford, Sunderland managed only 0.9 post-shot xG. Of that total, 0.69 came via a penalty kick, an unsustainable way of scoring.
At the same time, Arsenal struggled to break down a defensive block at Aston Villa on Matchday 2. Against a suspect defense, Mikel Arteta’s attack created only 1.1 xG & 0.8 post-shot xG.
In two meetings against Sunderland last year, Arsenal attempted many shots but struggled to create good chances. The attack peaked at 1.4 post-shot xG, averaging 1.3 over two legs.
Sunderland reinforced the defense during the Summer transfer window. Additionally, they get Arsenal off a visit to Italy on Wednesday before a short week trip back to England.
The short rest likely leads to a weaker Arsenal attacking effort. Without meaningful contributions from the favorite, I predict the match stays under 2.5 goals.
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