- Tottenham is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Leeds.
- Tottenham has lost each of its last three EPL matches as a home favorite.
- My Tottenham vs Leeds prediction is Leeds to Win or Draw (-110).
Tottenham continue their quest for Premier League safety as home favorites against Leeds.
Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham won 2-1 at Aston Villa on Matchday 35. The win, along with West Ham’s 3-0 loss at Brentford, lifted Tottenham out of the relegation zone.
Leeds cruised to a 3-1 home win against Burnley last Friday. The win extended Leeds’ unbeaten streak to six matches and all but guaranteed safety for Daniel Farke’s outfit.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs Leeds prediction.
Tottenham vs Leeds: Premier League Odds
Leeds vs Tottenham Prediction
Based on Leeds’ success against Tottenham in the reverse fixture and the must-win tax applied to Tottenham, my Tottenham vs Leeds prediction is Leeds Double Chance (-110).
X or Leeds United @ -102It’s Leeds or nothing for me on Monday. One can make the case Leeds is on the beach with three matches left, unless you buy motivation to try for a top-half finish.
That, paired with Tottenham’s quest for safety, leads to an inflated price on the hosts. Tottenham moved from +100 to -125 after the win over Villa, but it came against a heavily rotated squad.
I’m not sure the win does enough to justify the market adjustment. Plus, we saw Leeds thoroughly dominate the reverse fixture at Elland Road.
Despite losing 2-1 to Tottenham, Farke’s team dominated the underlying metrics. Expected goals rated the match 1.7-0.5 for Leeds, which also earned a 4-1 big scoring chances edge.
Post-shot expected goals – which takes into account only shots on target – gave Leeds a 1.7-0.6 edge over Tottenham.
Tottenham has won two straight and earned points in three straight. However, the wins came at very narrow margins.
De Zerbi’s side posted a +2 differential against a +0.8 expected goal differential against Wolves and Villa.
I’m simultaneously concerned how the defense holds up against an actually good attack without Cristian Romero. Leeds offers the hardest test of the three teams ranked 10th in the xGF table.
Plus, the Leeds attack rates out as a potential positive regression candidate. This season, Leeds scored 47 goals off 55.2 expected goals.
Only four sides experienced a larger underperformance in the EPL this year. Given those factors, I predict Leeds will earn at least a point on extended rest.
EPL Early Payout
When betting on EPL Match Result odds, you can receive an early payout if your team takes a 2-0 lead.
Check your Promotions for more info!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
