Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and an Argentina vs Switzerland prediction for their quarterfinal in Kansas City.
Argentina vs Switzerland: World Cup Odds
Switzerland vs Argentina Prediction
Based on Switzerland’s lack of experience against good attacks so far and their tired legs from the round of 16, my Argentina vs Switzerland prediction is the Argentina Moneyline (-145).
Confidence in a prediction for this match is relatively low.
Neither side warrants consideration after the Swiss went to penalty kicks. At the same time, measuring the true quality of these teams is difficult given their competition.
The key to this match is whether the Swiss can exploit Argentina’s shaky defense. Egypt showed cracks in the unit, but I question if Switzerland can achieve the same feat.
Regarding Argentina, the World Cup holders keep flirting with disaster. They’ve now struggled as a lofty favorite against Cape Verde and needed three late goals to win against Egypt.
Normally, that would warrant a sell-high look against Switzerland.
If there’s reason for encouragement on the underdog, it’s that the Swiss allowed nothing defensively against a strong-yet-volatile Colombia attack.
But trusting the UEFA outfit after penalty kicks is difficult.
Considering laying this price with the holders is worrisome, given how shaky the defense has performed.
If there’s a sign of optimism for Argentina, it’s that they outperformed a common opponent.
Both teams faced Algeria in the tournament. Argentina won 3-0 with a +1 expected goal differential and +2.2 post-shot xGDiff, per FotMob.
Switzerland played Algeria in the round of 32. Murat Yakin’s side recorded a +1.7 expected goal differential and a +1.01 post-shot xGDiff.
Generally speaking, post-shot xG is more predictive of future performances in a large sample. In a one-match sample size, it takes on diminished meaning.
Lastly, Switzerland could operate without key attacking midfielder Johan Manzambi. Without him, I wonder if the Swiss attack creates much after notching only 0.35 xG over 120 minutes.
With enough concerns about both teams, it would be Argentina or nothing in Kansas City.
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