- England is predicted to be a 2.5-goal favorite against Panama.
- Panama has lost each of its five previous World Cup matches.
- My England vs Panama prediction is the Total Under 3.5 Goals (-140).
England will close out its World Cup group campaign from East Rutherford against Panama.
The Three Lions disappointed on Matchday 2, drawing Ghana 0-0. It looked a stark contrast to Matchday 1 when England throttled Croatia 4-2 in Dallas.
Panama suffered a 1-0 defeat to Croatia in Toronto a few hours later. The loss eliminated Panama from contention for the knockout rounds.
Check out the World Cup odds and my England vs Panama prediction.
England vs Panama: World Cup Odds
Panama vs England Prediction
Based on England’s stout defensive record in the tournament and group standing, my England vs Panama prediction is the Total Under 3.5 Goals (-145).
England, by all intents and purposes, needs only a win to secure a group win. The only way they lose the group with a win is if Ghana throttles Croatia and posts a better differential.
My expectation for this match is that only England will contribute goals. Odds reflect that belief as oddsmakers price Both Teams to Score – “No” at a lofty .
Through two matches, England surrendered few meaningful chances. Croatia scored an unlikely two goals off 0.5 post-shot xG while Ghana failed to put a shot on target.
Panama offers the easiest test of the group stage so far for England. The attack fell off precipitously from Matchday 1 to 2, going from 1.4 psxG to 0.04 against Croatia.
At the other end of the field, England lacks any motivation to run up the score. It simply needs to – at worst – match Ghana’s result to win the group.
Even if England needed to win going away, I question if they’re able to achieve that feat. Their best performance came indoors against a Croatia team with belief in their attack.
Against Ghana, England struggled to break down a low block focused on defending. Despite holding 80% of the ball, the Three Lions created a mere 1.4 xG and 0.4 post-shot xG.
Panama offers a slightly easier test, but I’m confident the defense can keep England under 3.5 goals. Those factors lead me to predict the match stays under the total on Saturday.
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