Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Germany vs Paraguay prediction for their round of 32 fixture in Boston.
Germany vs Paraguay: World Cup Odds
Germany vs Paraguay: Anytime Goal Odds
Paraguay vs Germany Prediction
Based on Germany’s travel advantage and Paraguay’s lackluster defensive record against the USMNT, my Germany vs Paraguay prediction is the Germany 1H Moneyline (-125).
Both teams played on Thursday and will have a short turnaround before their round-of-32 fixture. A key difference? Germany faces a significantly shorter trip to Boston.
Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany selected Winston-Salem as its training base. They’ll return to North Carolina from East Rutherford, where they played Ecuador on Matchday 3.
Paraguay played its final group match against Australia in San Francisco, their training base. The South American side now faces its first trip outside California for the World Cup.
It should immediately put Paraguay at a disadvantage against their toughest opponent so far. By comparison, Germany (#10 in the ELO ratings) outpaces the USMMT by 16 spots.
When Paraguay played the United States in Los Angeles, they surrendered loads of chances in the first half.
The US took a 3-0 advantage at halftime. Two Folarin Balogun goals, along with a Paraguay own goal, informed a +1.82 post-shot expected goal differential for the host nation.
Paraguay failed to put a shot on target in the first half against a shaky US defense. Additionally, the match offers a buy-low opportunity on Germany, which drew the first half against Ecuador.
While Germany’s goal should not have counted, Ecuador scored a goal off 0.05 xG in the first half.
Lastly, Paraguay lacks experience against top European teams possessing dominant attacks. Never in the last five years has the South American side faced a UEFA opponent.
The closest comparisons are Brazil and Argentina. Since the Copa America, Paraguay has played four matches against those two teams.
They won the first half only once, at home against Brazil. They drew at home against Argentina after 45 minutes, but suffered bad defeats away from home soil.
At the 2024 Copa America, Brazil took a 3-0 lead at the interval. Expected goals finished 2.7-0.7 while post-shot xG finished 2-0.3, per FotMob.
Those performances, along with the travel edge, lead me to predict Germany wins the first half.
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