- England (-350) is predicted to win Group L at the 2026 World Cup.
- Oddsmakers price Croatia (+350) as the closest challenger to the Three Lions.
- I predict Croatia wins Group L at a higher frequency than their odds suggest.
Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group L winner.
Most Likely to Win Group L at 2026 FIFA World Cup
England (-350) is predicted to win Group L at the World Cup. The current price implies a 77.8% probability that the Three Lions finish atop the group.
Oddsmakers price Croatia as the closest challenger. At +350, the 2018 finalists hold a 22.2% implied probability to win the group.
Group L World Cup 2026 Odds
Group L World Cup 2026 Prediction
Based on England’s misleading qualifying record and Croatia’s underlying metrics at the 2024 Euros, I predict Croatia (+350) wins Group L.
Above all else, I give Croatia a better than 22.2% chance to win the group.
England will get significant attention after going 6-0-0 in qualifying. Manager Thomas Tuchel’s England conceded zero goals in the process.
The accomplishment regresses when one considers the level of opposition. England played in a qualifying group featuring Albania, Serbia, Latvia and Andorra.
Recently, England appeared more vulnerable. In March friendlies, the Three Lions drew against Uruguay and lost outright to Japan.
Plus, albeit under different management, England amassed only five points en route to a group win at the Euros. Only Romania notched fewer points as a group winner.
Last we saw Croatia was at the 2024 Euros. The 2018 World Cup finalists notched only two points, drawing Italy and Albania.
But Croatia ran wildly unlucky in that group.
While acknowledging some penalty luck contributed to the differential, Croatia posted a -3 goal differential against a +1.2 post-shot expected goal differential.
Manager Zlatko Dalic’s side notched at least two post-shot xG in all three matches. That includes a 3-0 loss against World Cup favorites Spain.
In my belief, that could lead to a misconception about Croatia’s viability in this group. Paired with my skepticism of England, I believe a path exists for Croatia to win the group.
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