Spain will try to secure a Group H win on Matchday 3 against Uruguay.
Luis de la Fuente’s side captured a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia on Matchday 2. The win took Spain to four points after the team drew 0-0 with Cape Verde on Matchday 1.
Uruguay also drew Cape Verde, playing to a 2-2 draw in Miami. Marcelo Bielsa’s side sits on two points entering the final match, needing a win to steal the group.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Spain vs Uruguay prediction.
Spain vs Uruguay: World Cup Odds
Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
Based on Spain’s defensive record in competitive matches and Uruguay’s poor metrics as an underdog, my Spain vs Uruguay prediction is Uruguay Under 0.5 Goals (+105).
Spain has kept a clean sheet in seven of their last eight competitive matches. While I don’t emphasize their first two matches that much, the underlying metrics offer encouragement.
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia combined for only 0.23 post-shot expected goals against Spain.
Go back to World Cup qualifying, and bettors will find an equally impressive defensive record by Spain. Over six matches against Turkey, Bulgaria and Hungary, they allowed only two goals.
Both came in the final match against Turkey after Spain secured World Cup qualification.
That helps create a sell-high opportunity on the Uruguay attack. Although they recorded strong attacking stats against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, it’s a different situation in this match.
Uruguay moves from operating as the possession-dominant side to playing without the ball. In their World Cup qualifying campaign, the South American side struggled to create as a dog.
Despite scoring five goals over four matches against Argentina and Brazil, Uruguay rates out as a negative regression candidate in those matches.
Bielsa’s side scored those five goals off 2.9 expected goals. They created over one expected goal zero times in those four fixtures.
Given those factors, I predict Uruguay fails to score against a superior Spain defense.
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