6 Early Bets to Consider for the 2026 Men’s Australian Open

The first round of the Australian Open men’s singles draw will unfold over the next few days. As you might expect, BetMGM has tennis odds for both individual matches and tournament futures. 

I’ve taken a hard look through the draw and flagged matches that look like interesting betting opportunities.

Here’s what I’ve got so far.

Liam Draxl vs. Damir Dzumhur Prediction

Liam Draxl is a Canadian who successfully played his way through the qualifying bracket this week. His reward is a main-draw match against Damir Dzumhur, a 33-year-old Bosnian player who’s primarily a clay player. 

Dzumhur has played at least 60 matches in each of the last five years, but he’s only had one winning year on hardcourt since 2019. He hasn’t won a main-draw match in Melbourne since 2018. This is a tour player who’s experienced but ultimately past his prime and playing on an unfavorable surface.

Draxl is in form and playing well after his qualifying run. In my opinion, the fundamentals in play explain why this price for a qualifying player is so short. I like Draxl to win and advance to the second round. 

Prediction: Draxl +105

Sebastian Korda vs. Michael Zheng Prediction

Michael Zheng is another qualifier I’m looking at during this first round, and he got a much tougher draw than Draxl. Zheng must square off against American Sebastian Korda, who has advanced out of the first round at the Australian Open in each of the previous four years.

At first, I was considering the Korda side of this match, as he seems very likely to advance. There’s a raw math argument that the -300 price is actually a bit light here, and so some bettors may target him as one leg of a larger first-round favorites parlay.

I was looking at the numbers for Korda’s set spreads, but wasn’t happy with the -165 price to get Korda -1.5. Korda advances routinely, but he’s lost plenty of games and sets in those wins. 

That dissatisfaction led me to the games line, which is Korda -5.5. And in looking at his first-round margins, I discovered that Korda has actually failed to cover a 5.5-game margin in each of his last three first-round Aussie wins. Like many players, Korda’s match history here shows a tendency to punt on sets if they’re not going well, allowing opponents to grab sets with lopsided scores while conserving energy for the next frame. There are even a few bagels in there. 

That actually makes Zheng an interesting target at +5.5 games. If you can wait out the current -140 price, great. If not, I’d buy it anyway.

Prediction: Michael Zheng +5.5 Games (-140)

Arthur Rinderknech vs. Fábián Marozsán Prediction

France’s Arthur Rinderknech is seeded 24th here, yet Hungarian foe Fábián Marozsán is the nominal -120 favorite here. 

That’s the kind of price that usually draws my attention as I’m scanning the sportsbook’s tennis odds page and looking for opportunities. 

Arthur Rinderknech may have a career-high ranking right now, but he’s coming off middling performances at the United Cup (this month) and Davis Cup (last November). He had a sub-.500 match record in 2025 and has one career win at the Australian Open. That was in the 2022 first round.

That poor historical report goes a long way toward explaining why Marozsan – who just made it to the semifinals in Auckland, by the way — is the short favorite over a seeded player. So I like Marozsan to win, even at cost.

However, while researching this match, I found an even better bet than a straight side. These players met just a few months ago at the Paris Masters, with Rinderknech winning 7-6, 7-6. Back in 2023, they played on outdoor hardcourt at the Shanghai Masters, and Marozsan won 7-6, 6-2. 

In other words: Three of their four previous head-to-head sets have gone to a tiebreak.

This is an excellent time to deploy my first-set tennis betting strategy guide. I like First Set Over 10.5 Games (+118) and Yes, First Set Tiebreak at +175. 

Prediction: Fábián Marozsán -120; First Set Over 10.5 (+118); First Set Tiebreak (+175)

Men’s Australian Open Second Quarter Winner Prediction

If you’re a tennis futures bettor who doesn’t play the quarters in Grand Slam tournaments, you’re really missing out. They’re some of the best markets to handicap, and you don’t even have to deal with actually picking a tournament winner. 

The second quarter really stood out to me in this draw as a market worth betting this year. 

Daniil Medvedev is currently priced as the favorite at BetMGM, and that makes some sense – he’s a known hardcourt player and previous Slam winner, so he’s likely to attract some market attention. 

But Medvedev showed signs of slowing down in 2025. After making the championship match in Melbourne three times in four years, Medvedev didn’t make it out of the second round last year. In fact, he didn’t make it out of the second round of any Grand Slam in 2025. He’s set to turn 30 next month.

That could just be a blip for a guy who won seven hardcourt Slam quarters from 2019-24. But either way, a 2-to-1 price feels a little stale here.

Alexander Zverev is the guy I want at +225.  Zverev is often at his best in Melbourne, where he played well on the fast hardcourt. The early calendar date often has him focused and, more importantly, not yet injured.

Zverev has won his quarter at the Aussie Open in back-to-back years now, and I suspect he will make it three in a row this month. 

For anyone who’s a little Zverev skeptical, take a look at American Learner Tien, who’s currently available at 10-to-1. He’s in great form and advanced to the fourth round last year. This could be the year he pushes for a semifinal berth at a Slam event.

Prediction: Zverev Wins Second Quarter (+225)

2026 Australian Open Best Bets (First Round)

• Liam Draxl +105
• Michael Zheng +5.5 Games (-140)
• Fábián Marozsán -120
• Rinderknech vs. Marozsán First Set Tiebreak (+175)
• Zverev Wins Second Quarter (+225)