- RB Leipzig is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won nine of its last 11 Champions League away matches.
- My RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool prediction centers around the Liverpool team total.
Seeking three wins from three to start their Champions League campaign, Liverpool travels to Germany for a meeting with RB Leipzig.
Arne Slot’s side is off to a strong start with wins over two Italian sides. After beating AC Milan 3-1 on Matchday 1, the Reds captured a 2-0 win over Bologna in their last UCL match.
Leipzig’s Champions League campaign is off to a poor start. After losing 2-1 at Atletico Madrid, the German outfit fell 3-2 to Juventus despite playing up a man for the second half.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool prediction.
Champions League Odds: RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -0.5 (-125) | 3.5 (+120) | -115 |
| RB Leipzig | +0.5 (-110) | 3.5 (-165) | +270 |
| Draw | +300 |
Champions League Betting: RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on Leipzig’s weak defensive record against strong offenses, my RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-160).
To bring the price down, I’ll pair the team total with the Real Madrid Moneyline. That brings the price to +134.
Leipzig are somewhat difficult to evaluate this season as they’ve yet to face a potent offense at home.
However, in trips to Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, Leipzig surrendered 1.7 and 2.2 expected goals, respectively.
Plus, Leipzig struggled against Manchester City last year in the Champions League. As slight home dogs, Leipzig allowed 2.2 xG to the Cityzens.
Liverpool isn’t quite on the same level as that City attack, but they’ve produced a strong start to this campaign.
Only two opponents have kept Liverpool under this number this season, with the Reds amassing 3.1 xG at Milan.
Currently, Milan sits 15th in terms of domestic xG allowed across the Big Five European leagues. Leipzig is only a spot ahead in 14th.
Finally, it’s worrisome that Leipzig conceded chances galore against a 10-man Juventus that doesn’t possess a great attack.
Juve, which sits 59th in xG created across Europe’s Big Five leagues, created 1.2 xG and 1.5 post-shot xG with only 10 players.
As it stands, Liverpool is 11th in that category across the European Big Five leagues.
Back the visitors to continue their strong offensive run on Wednesday in Germany.
RB Leipzig Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 19 at Mainz: 2-0, W
- Oct. 6 at Heidenheim: 1-0, W
- Oct. 2 vs. Juventus: 2-3, L (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 vs. Augsburg: 4-0, W
- Sept. 22 at St. Pauli: 0-0, D
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 20 vs. Chelsea: 2-1, W
- Oct. 5 at Crystal Palace: 1-0, W
- Oct. 2 vs. Bologna: 2-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 at Wolves: 2-1, W
- Sept. 25 vs. West Ham: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
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