- Arsenal is a -0.5 goal favorite against Sevilla.
- Arsenal is 1-0-1 (W-D-L) in the first two Champions League matches.
- Sevilla undeservedly rescued a draw against PSV Eindhoven on Matchday 2.
Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Sevilla vs. Arsenal prediction.
Arsenal have produced some mixed results recently. They lost at Lens on UCL Matchday 2 before capturing a home win against Manchester City.
This past weekend, Arsenal drew 2-2 at Chelsea thanks to two late goals.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have run well in recent games. Despite earning a point in three straight matches, the Spanish side owns a -0.67 expected goal differential.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match.
Sevilla vs. Arsenal Odds
- Sevilla to Win: +333
- Arsenal to Win: -130
- Sevilla vs. Arsenal Draw: +280
- The Sevilla vs. Arsenal Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Sevilla vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Sevilla vs. Arsenal is Sevilla Second-Half Team Total Under 0.5 (-145).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Some inconsistent performances led me away from Arsenal for the game. However, their defense has proved top-tier in recent performances.
In their last two domestic fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea – both teams I rate ahead of Sevilla – Arsenal’s defense has shut them down.
Despite conceding two goals – one via a penalty – the Gooners limited those sides to only 1.04 combined non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com.
They’ve excelled on the defensive end in the second half particularly.
Against those opponents, Arsenal surrendered only 0.26 expected goals, including only 0.08 expected goals to Manchester City.
Sevilla, meanwhile, tends to start strong before fading off in the second half.
Over the weekend against Real Madrid – a defense more vulnerable than Arsenal – hosts Sevilla generated 0.67 expected goals and one big scoring chance in the second half.
If you expect Arsenal to take an early lead – they’re -175 to score the first goal – there’s further data suggesting Sevilla’s attack will struggle.
With a 3-0 halftime lead on Matchday 1 against PSV Eindhoven, Arsenal surrendered only 0.12 expected goals in the second half.
Sevilla likely receives a home crowd boost early, but they should fade late.
Back this total market so long as it remains available at -150 or better.
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