- Bayern Munich is a -1.5 goal favorite at Galatasaray.
- Both teams are unbeaten in UCL this season.
- Why Bayern is overrated away from home.
Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League clash, I’m set to provide a Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich prediction.
Hosts Galatasaray have used two come-from-behind efforts to sit second in Group A. Most recently, the Turkish champions captured a 3-2 road win against Manchester United.
As for 2020 Champions League winners Bayern Munich, they sit atop Group A with six points. It hasn’t been smooth sailing, though, as Bayern needed to come from behind on Matchday 2 against FC Copenhagen.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match.
Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich Odds
- Galatasaray to Win: +550
- Bayern Munich to Win: -250
- Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich Draw: +400
- The Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Galatasaray vs. Bayern Munich is Galatasaray +1.5 Goals (-145).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This is a classic case of oddsmakers overrating a top team playing away from home.
Although Bayern Munich won the match 2-1 against Copenhagen, the underlying metrics suggest the match was much closer.
Per fbref.com, Bayern tied Copenhagen on expected goals (0.9 to 0.9). Even if you adjust to evaluate post-shot expected goals, it’s still a 1.55 to 0.83 victory for Bayern.
That came against a Copenhagen side I rate much lower than Galatasaray, who has acquired some top talent over the summer from European powers.
With new talent incorporated, the Turkish power profiles very well as an underdog.
At Manchester United, Galatasaray lost the non-penalty expected goals battle by only 0.5 expected goals.
Now they return home, where they just outclassed Beşiktaş this weekend. Against another top Turkish side, Galatasaray won the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.38 to 0.44.
That should come in handy against a Bayern side who, against very poor competition, has posted a +1.63 road xGDiff per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga this season.
Just against fellow Champions League side RB Leipzig, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side only earned a +0.9 non-penalty xGDiff.
Based on those factors, I’ll support the home underdogs on Tuesday. Back them at +1.5 so long as the price remains at -145 or better.
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