- The Auburn Tigers are a -3 point favorite vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Auburn vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Auburn (5-4) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (4-5) on Nov. 14 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Auburn Tigers are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Auburn vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Auburn vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Auburn | -3 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -145 |
| Mississippi State | +3 -125 | 49.5 -120 | +120 |
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Auburn will win this game with 51.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Auburn Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Auburn will cover the spread with 50.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Auburn Best Bets Today
- Auburn has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- Auburn has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Auburn has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.35 Units / 3% ROI)
- Auburn has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- Auburn has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets Today
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Auburn Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Auburn Tigers is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.75 Units / -57.79% ROI).
- Auburn is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 12.5% ROI
- Auburn is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -14.29% ROI
- Auburn is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.45 Units / -14.8% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.08 Units / -2.19% ROI
- Mississippi State is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.57 Units / -36.17% ROI
- Mississippi State is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.19% ROI
Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Auburn was winless (0-6) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Auburn was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Auburn is winless (0-2) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .414
Auburn was 1-5 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn
Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
Mississippi State was 1-6 (.143) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581
Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Mississippi State was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Matchup Notes for Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Auburn’s defense has allowed 11.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Auburn’s WRs has 475 receptions in 33 games (14.4 per game) since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Auburn’s WRs has 475 receptions in 33 games (14.4 per game) since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Auburn’s WRs had 11 receiving touchdowns last season — T-2nd-fewest among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 24 receiving touchdowns last season — T-most among SEC defenses.
Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends
Auburn Skill Players have averaged just 10.3 yards per reception (4,266 yards/414 catches) since the 2024 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0
Auburn Skill Players have averaged just 9.8 yards per reception (1,901 yards/194 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7
Auburn TEs have been targeted 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– fewest among SEC Teams
Auburn Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 18.0 receptions (414 Rec/23 TDs) since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0
Auburn WRs have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among SEC Teams
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State WRs had 10 receptions in the 4th quarter last week– most among SEC Teams
Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1
Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Auburn Defensive Stats & Trends
Auburn sacked opposing QBs on 20% of pass attempts (6/30) last week– best in the SEC; Average: 8%
Auburn has allowed first downs on 26% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12%
Auburn has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 18%
Auburn sacked opposing QBs on 20% of pass attempts (6/30) last week– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Auburn tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 44 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) last week– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State allowed 456.4 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 341.3
Mississippi State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6
Mississippi State sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (10/341) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Mississippi State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.8
Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
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