Northwestern vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• The Ohio State are a -11 point favorite vs. the Northwestern Wildcats
• Northwestern vs. Ohio State Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• TV Channel: FOX

Northwestern (6-3) visit Ohio Stadium to take on Ohio State (6-3) on Nov. 14 in Columbus, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Ohio State are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -11 (-125).

The Northwestern vs. Ohio State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Northwestern vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Northwestern vs Ohio State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 80.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Northwestern Wildcats and the Ohio State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Northwestern vs Ohio State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northwestern will cover the spread with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Northwestern Best Bets Today

• Northwestern have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Northwestern has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Northwestern has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Northwestern have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.59 Units / 11% ROI)

Ohio State Best Bets Today

• Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 1% ROI)
• Ohio State have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• Ohio State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ohio State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern Wildcats is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.69 Units / 7% ROI).

• Northwestern is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 10.95% ROI
• Northwestern is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.35 Units / -3.51% ROI
• Northwestern is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.39 Units / -3.92% ROI

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.03% ROI).

• Ohio State is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -6.11% ROI
• Ohio State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.58 Units / 5.88% ROI
• Ohio State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.55 Units / -15.61% ROI

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Northwestern was winless (0-6) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Northwestern was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Northwestern was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Northwestern was winless (0-7) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Ohio State is 15-2 (.882) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2024 season– 17th-best in FBS; Average: .625

Ohio State is 2-4 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Ohio State was 14-1 (.933) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .575

Ohio State is 17-2 (.895) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .677

Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Ohio State

Ohio State’s offense threw for 3,755 passing yards in 14 games (268.2 YPG) last season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense allowed just 193.5 passing yards per game last season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has 563 receptions in 39 games (14.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 19.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State had 33 receiving touchdowns last season — 2nd-most among Big Ten skill players. Northwestern’s defense allowed 13 receiving touchdowns last season — 5th-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 378 attempts last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Northwestern’s offense threw for 2,417 passing yards in 13 games (just 185.9 YPG) last season — 30th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 129.7 passing yards per game last season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s offense threw for 2,417 passing yards in 13 games (just 185.9 YPG) last season — 30th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense allowed just 129.7 passing yards per game last season — best among P5 defenses.

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 32.0 receptions (128 Rec/4 TDs) last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 32.0 receptions (128 Rec/4 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Northwestern WRs averaged a touchdown every 32.0 receptions (128 Rec/4 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.9

Northwestern have thrown 14 TDs and just one interception this season– T-5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.4

Northwestern TEs have averaged 15.6 yards per reception (532 yards/34 catches) this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.6

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State WRs were targeted 9 times in the 1st quarter last week– most among Big Ten Teams

Ohio State WRs have averaged 19.6 yards per reception (334 yards/17 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.3

Ohio State RBs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Ohio State WRs have averaged 18.6 yards per reception (873 yards/47 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.2

Ohio State WRs have averaged 19.6 yards per reception (334 yards/17 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

Northwestern Defensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 38.1

Northwestern had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5

Northwestern allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (16 completions/40 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 55%

Northwestern did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 14 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 18%

Northwestern did not allow an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 14 carries on 3rd and long last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%

Ohio State Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State opponents averaged 44.1 Passing Attempts per TD (441 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Ohio State opponents has averaged 48.8 Passing Attempts per TD (634 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 21.2

Ohio State opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (39 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Ohio State’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 28% of PATs last season– highest in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Ohio State allowed 5 rushing TDs on 425 carries (85 Carries Per TD) last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.1

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