- The Bowling are a -8.5 point favorite vs. the Ball State Cardinals
- Ball State vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Ball State (1-5) visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium to take on Bowling Green (2-4) on Oct. 17 in Bowling Green, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Bowling are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (+120).
The Ball State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +8.5 -160 | 44.5 +120 | +210 |
| Bowling Green | -8.5 +120 | 44.5 -160 | -250 |
Ball State vs Bowling Green Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ball State Cardinals and the Bowling, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Bowling Green Best Bets Today
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.20 Units / 90% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State Cardinals is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.56% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -23.53% ROI
- Ball State is 5-1 when betting the Over for +3.9 Units / 59.27% ROI
- Ball State is 1-5 when betting the Under for -4.52 Units / -68.28% ROI
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.56% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 4.73% ROI
- Bowling Green is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.36% ROI
- Bowling Green is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.42 Units / -36.56% ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Ball State is 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .491
Ball State was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .442
Ball State was 2-7 (.222) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Ball State was 1-7 (.125) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Bowling Green is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .442
Bowling Green is 5-11 (.312) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2024 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .478
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Bowling Green
Bowling Green’s WRs has averaged just 11.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 12.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s offense has thrown for 5,849 passing yards in 30 games (just 195.0 YPG) since the 2024 season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 252.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s RBs averaged 10.0 yards after the catch last season — 18th-best among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs has 303 receptions in 30 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs has 303 receptions in 30 games (just 10.1 per game) since the 2024 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s RBs has rushed for 2,136 yards on 515 carries (just 4.1 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense have allowed 5.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State RBs have been targeted 12 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
Ball State RBs have been targeted 17 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Ball State RBs averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game (753/12) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9
Ball State RBs averaged 15.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (95 yards / 6 touches) on 3rd and long last season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.2
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 176 times last season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Bowling Green TEs have been targeted 23 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green TEs have picked up first downs on 11 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has allowed 11 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State has allowed 11 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has allowed 25 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-most in FBS
Ball State has allowed 25 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Bowling Green Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green has allowed opponents to catch 40 of 53 passes (76% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 56%
Bowling Green has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (18/137) this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%
Bowling Green has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (40 completions/55 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Bowling Green has allowed opponents to catch 40 of 53 passes (76% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Bowling Green did not record a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
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